Is Arlene on the edge of becoming a 'cane?

[StormChasr]

Thoughts and comments welcome. I believe that she gained strength by her minimal friction with Cuba, and will ride the warm SST area in the Central Gulf into a decent cane status.

[dhweather]

Not with all the dry air in the SW quad.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think your 100 percent right. The convection has formed over the LLC. In banding looks good. Also outflow is spreading over all quads but southwest. I say a hurricane. Maybe upwards of 70 to 75 knots at landfall if I went to go out on the limb.

[Stormcenter]

Not with all the dry air in the SW quad.

That is not always the case.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like another possible Tropical Storm Barry type scenario from a few years ago. Here at my place we got 68 mph winds in Barry and I was on the NW eyewall as she came ashore to my east. Arlene is liable to completely wrap just before landfall and possibly make hurricane status.

I think she is Pensacola's baby and that puts me in the bad sector of this one. I'm prepared, already took in everything from outside and got myself 10 extra gallons of gas for the generator. I'm a mile from the beach and will post as long as I can my Davis Vantage Pro weather station recordings.

[drudd1]

Posted by dhweather:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here's my analysis on what will happen with Arlene:

The Upper Level Low is weakening and moving South, allowing more humid air in the Northern and Eastern GOM, as evidenced in WV images.

A more favorable environment - less shear and less dry air - is moving into place over the Northern GOM

The Ridge over the Southeast US and the ULL is forming a pretty good gradient between the two, and Arlene will shoot right between the two.

The more favorable environment, speed of the storm, and warm surface SST's will give Arlene a chance to make minimal hurricane strength at landfall overnight Saturday/early Sunday. Right now, I feel that the center of the storm will pass between the Mouth of the Mississippi and
Pensacola, with most of the weather east of Gulfport, Mississippi.

Are you still thinking that it will make hurricane status, but still overnight Saturday or early Sunday, or not at all?

[Stormcenter]

Not right now. She is just having a hard time with the dry air.

[MGC]

Dean, Arlene has been tracking to the right of the offical NHC track. I'd look for this trend to continue. I'm going to go out on a limb and say a Navarre Beach landfall. This will put you in the good side. I remember your experience with Barry a few years ago. Barry sure did look like a miminal hurricane at landfall. Hopefully Arlene won't get it together in time to make cane.......MGC

[dhweather]

Posted by dhweather:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here's my analysis on what will happen with Arlene:

The Upper Level Low is weakening and moving South, allowing more humid air in the Northern and Eastern GOM, as evidenced in WV images.

A more favorable environment - less shear and less dry air - is moving into place over the Northern GOM

The Ridge over the Southeast US and the ULL is forming a pretty good gradient between the two, and Arlene will shoot right between the two.

The more favorable environment, speed of the storm, and warm surface SST's will give Arlene a chance to make minimal hurricane strength at landfall overnight Saturday/early Sunday. Right now, I feel that the center of the storm will pass between the Mouth of the Mississippi and
Pensacola, with most of the weather east of Gulfport, Mississippi.

Are you still thinking that it will make hurricane status, but still overnight Saturday or early Sunday, or not at all?

I still think there is a small chace for hurricane status before landfall,
but if the dry air going into the center does not stop, it likely will not reach hurricane status.

[PTrackerLA]

I think dry air will keep her from cane status through the rest of the night. She could POSSIBLY achieve cane status right before landfall as sometimes systems seem to wrap up right before they hit land.

[Thunder44]

Arlene has been dealing with dry air throughout her life and has managed to survive and get stronger. It's only slowing down the intensification process. It won't prevent it from becoming a minimial hurricane much longer.