Arlene forecast 4: Minimal Hurricane making landfall soon

[Josephine96]

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE
NJN WEATHER CENTER
925 AM SAT JUN 11TH 2005

Tropical Storm Arlene is churning up the GOM waters this morning as she is fastly approaching land. Arlene is bookin' at a clip of 15 mph. This should give us our 1st landfalling system by today.

Arlene continues to strengthen as she cris crosses the Gulf and may make the 1 last boost up to Cat 1 hurricane status before landfall.

Her movement is currently to the NNW which has caused the forecast track by the NHC to be shifted back to Alabama. Anybody on the eastern side of the storm should be aware though that the right side of the storm always has the worst weather. Tornado watches are currently up across Florida as the tropical moisture may lead to the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms during the day.

Arlene as all systems do will die out fast when she hits land. But her rain may be more damaging than her wind. Rain may fall on already saturated areas, causing flooding concerns.

My forecast landfall is still for somewhere around Pensacola Beach, but it will most likely, make landfall a little west of there.

Here's the experimental forecast on Arlene:

Today: Making landfall. Somewhere between Pns Beach and Mobile. Max Winds: 80 mph
Sunday: Quickly dying out. Max Winds: 40 mph
Monday: Just a low pressure system near the NE. Max Winds: 25 mph

DISCLAIMER
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[HurricaneGirl]

Nice report John.

[Josephine96]

Thank you Mary

[Brent]

Nice forecast, except I don't think it's going to make Hurricane status. It weakened some overnight(not drastic, but enough) to where this flareup is going to be a little too late.

[Brett Adair]

Very nice forecast, but I have to agree with Brent about this thing not making hurricane status before landfall. Even if it does, it will only go to 75 mph. No new convective bursts have developed and allowed this thing to deepen anymore. As we get further north into the Gulf Stream towards Mobile Bay it may have one last chance to roar, but very doubtful with the shear it is about to endure from the SW flow. Nice convergent pocket this thing is riding between the Bermuda HP and the deep trough swinging across the central portion of the country. The center is actually becoming well established this morning and hopefully we can get a cane out of it. Right now, I am more concerned with the coastal tornado threat than anything. 0-1km shear values of 500+ m^2/s^2 is making for a very volitale low level atmosphere from MOB-PNS-PCB.

[Josephine96]

Thank you for the comments all It may indeed not get to cane status.. But it may reach 75.. I only said 80 to be on the erred side of high improbability lol