6/14/2005 5:30AM TWO

#1 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Jun 14, 2005 4:23 am

ABNT20 KNHC 140859
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY ABOUT 200 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA. THIS ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN LOW
IN THE AREA...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. IF
NECESSARY...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IN THIS AREA REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

Thunder44 · #2 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Jun 14, 2005 4:53 am

The Carribean disturbance looks badly sheared this early this morning. If it doesn't get better organzied later this morning, they'll probably cancel the flight.

air360 · #3 Postby **air360** » Tue Jun 14, 2005 5:07 am

as bad as it looks...looking at the IR it still seems to be fighting and trying to fire up some new storms....it may be a losing battle though...

air360 · #4 Postby **air360** » Tue Jun 14, 2005 5:11 am

....it also seems to have almost split in two....one part around 17/76 moving almost north and the other part around 17/70 moving NE....

Derek Ortt · #5 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Jun 14, 2005 6:57 am

the upper trough dug a lot further south than expected. Yet another example of why changes in the data assimilation need to be made

#6 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Jun 14, 2005 8:11 am

You're not kidding Derek - that trough looked to be weakening and
appeared to have stopped moving south. Them blam, it's a lot further
south.

As for the models, there is certainly room for improvement. However,
they can't change too much at once, otherwise, they may do more damage than good to the model.

Derek Ortt · #7 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Jun 14, 2005 8:15 am

they can change the scheme for initialization that they use where the previous model forecast makes up 50% of the new analysis. A bad forecast from before means a garbage analysis

6/14/2005 5:30AM TWO

6/14/2005 5:30AM TWO

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