GFS and Next Week

[KatDaddy]

Perhaps more to watch in the GOM next week.

Brownsville AFD:

500MB RIDGE OVER WEST TX EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MOVE LITTLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN
INVERTED 700MB TROUGH/LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY. THE
12Z GFS BRINGS THIS FEATURE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TUESDAY TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WEDNESDAY. THE WESTERN GULF AND SOUTH TEXAS
SHOULD BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THIS FEATURE.

Corpus Christi AFD:

LONG-TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...GFS/NOGAPS ARE CONSISTENT
WITH BOTH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE (WITH APPROXIMATE N-S
AXIS JUST WEST OF THE CWFA)...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW
PROGD TO MOVE WWD ACRS THE NRN GULF BEFORE MOVG OVR LA. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO PROG A WEAK NW/SE ORIENTED BNDRY TO ENTER THE CWFA BY
MON. HWR...DO NOT ANTICIPATE PCPN OWING TO STG SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED. LOW WIND/KINETIC ENERGY/SEAS EXPECTED OVR THE
WRN GULF. CAVEAT...SFC LOW/STRONGER WIND MAY DEVELOP OVR THE
ERN/CNTRL GULF...AS PROGD BY THE GFS. DEPENDING ON THE DURATION/MVMT
OF THIS SFC LOW...HIGHER SWELLS COULD ENTER THE WRN GULF BY WED.

TALLAHASSEE AFD:

LONG TERM...EXTENDED PATTERN LOOKS A LITTLE STAGNANT FOR THE
CONUS...TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS AND RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE. CUTOFF LOW
CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS...AS WELL AS ECMWF...
PLACES THE CUTOFF LOW OVER AL ON TUES AND WED. GFS AT 12Z DEEPENS THE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GOM AND SPINS UP A SFC LOW. SFC LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO AL AND MS ON WED. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS SOMEWHAT ON
TUES AND WED BASED UPON THE SUGGESTIONS OF TBW

Tampa AFD:

SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THRU SUNDAY
WITH THE SFC FRONT STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH PORTION OF THE
STATE AND THE MID/UPR LOW GRADUALLY DEEPENING AND SINKING SOUTHWEST.
BEYOND SUNDAY THE DETAILS BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO WORK OUT DUE TO
LACK OF RUN CONSISTENCY...BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE
MID/UPR TROF WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST WITH POTENTIAL SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL OR EASTERN GULF EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF S-SW FLOW IN THE MID/UPR LEVELS AND
SE-S FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN A TROPICAL OR HIGH PW
AIRMASS WITH DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

[Rainband]

keep it out of the Eastern GOM. You all over yonder in Texas and LA can have it

[mobilebay]

[CFL]

I wouldn't mind seeing some rain to help keep these burning tempatures down.

[Cookiely]

I wouldn't mind seeing some rain to help keep these burning tempatures down.

I agree. I almost passed out after mowing for a half hour this evening. It was a close call.

[mobilebay]

After looking at the 18Z run it does not pick up on the feature at all. However, I do see what they where talking about on the 12Z run. The 00Z run should be interesting.

[Stratusxpeye]

i mowed my lawn too today. every 20 mins i jumped in the pool. 97 was our high with 113 fel like. my weatherstation said 130 but it was half in the sun

[mobilebay]

Well after looking at the 00Z GFS, I don't see much to speak of. It tries to develop a surface low over the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend. However, it has it drifting into the BOC, then just stays as a weak Disturbance over the BOC through 172 hours.