Invest 92A (RSMC New Delhi issues STWO)

[senorpepr]

Invest 92A is located at 21.9N 66.3E (215mi SSW of Karachi, Pakistan). Sustained winds associated with 92A are 15 mph with a pressure of 1006mb.

RSMC New Delhi (India Meteorological Department) issued the following... (Note: New Delhi's term "depression" is what we'd call a low. In this case, 92A is not a tropical cyclone at this time.)

WTIN20 DEMS 220650 COR

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
------------------------
DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 22 JUNE 2005 AAA
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600
UTC AAA

YESTERDAY'S DEPRESSION OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA OFF SAURASHTRA
COAST MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED NEAR LAT 22.0 DEG. N
AND LONG 68.0 DEG E AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY (JUNE 22,2005 ) ABOUT
150 KM WEST OF PORBANDAR. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE SLOWLY IN A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.

INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO
SEEN OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND WESTCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
BAY OF BENGAL.

ENDS=

JTWC issued this...

ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/211800Z-221800ZJUN2005//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 70.0E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 68.5E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTION SITUATED TO THE
NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

NNNN

Here's a link to the WMO's Severe Weather Information Center. Once IMD classifies this as a tropical cyclone, the WMO will begin tracking it.

http://severe.worldweather.org/tc/in/index.html

[senorpepr]

For what it's worth, the 15km EXPERIMENTAL WRF model over southwestern Asia shows 92A deepening over the next couple of day to at least a 992mb low while moving westward toward the Arabian Peninsula.

[senorpepr]

WTIN20 DEMS 221620

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
------------------------
DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 22-06-2005 AAA
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
(THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT
24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1500 UTC AAA

THE DEPRESSION OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA OFF SAURASHTRA
COAST MOVED WESTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY
(JUNE 22,2005) ABOUT 250 KM WEST OF PORBANDAR. IT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE SLOWLY IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AAA

INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH ARABIAN SEA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION AAA

ENDS=


===============================================
ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/221800Z-231800ZJUN2005//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.5N
68.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 65.5E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CYCLING DEEP
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//

[senorpepr]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the IMD products.

For those who weren't listening to the Talkin' Tropics show (why someone wouldn't is beyond me )...

India Meteorology Department (IMD) is focusing on some development on 92A. This is also in line with the 15km AFWA MM5 and the 15km experimental WRF. Both models bring the storm to tropical storm strength.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is looking at a poor chance of development. 45km GFS and 18km COAMPS agrees with this as the Somali Jet will bring way too much shear into the region.

As for SSTs, temperatures are between upper 80s to mid 90s. The higher temperatures are near the Gulf of Oman. However, the Somali Jet is bringing a cool tongue off the Arabian Peninsula that is dropping temperatures a few degrees below the rest of the basin. Regardless, temperatures on the whole are 1-2C above normal.

Climatology shows that June is the second month of one of the two "peaks" of the North Indian Ocean (NIO) season. The NIO typically sees 1.3 storms in May and June. In October and November, the NIO will typically see 2.3 storms. Regardless, from January through June, the NIO should average 1.6 storms. 92A would be the first Arabian Sea storm, but there were two Bay of Bengal storms back in January. If this happens to reach TS strength, it would be named Pyarr.

Anyway, current Dvorak estimates on 92A is T2.0. This should be monitored, especially with the threat for gusty winds and heavy rains from southern Iran and Pakistan as well as Northwestern India. Also, ships along the Gulf of Oman will have to monitor this...