NWS Miami not feeling too good with their forecast

[clfenwi]

This afternoon's Area Forecast Discussion, with emphasis added on the forecaster's view of the models...

MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN IT. MODELS ARE BASICALLY CLUELESS IN AT LEAST THE
FIRST PERIOD. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW A VORT MAX JUST W OF EYW BUT
CLEARLY THE CONVECTION IS WELL TO THE NORTH AND AT THE SAME TIME
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY
SHORTWAVE DIVING S AROUND BACK SIDE OF MAIN EASTERN U.S. TROF BUT
MODELS TOTALLY IGNORE IT. AT ANY RATE, TAKING COMBINATION OF
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND FORECAST POPS FOR THE FIRST PERIOD. CONVECTION
APPROACHING W CST IS MOVING E AND IT IS ONLY A NARROW BAND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE BEHIND IT. THUS, THERE MAY
BE SOME LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING BUT NOTHING MORE SERIOUS SO WILL
NOT NEED TO REISSUE FFA. BEYOND THE FIRST PERIOD, HAVE JUST GONE WITH
PERSISTENCE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DRY US OUT AS SFC
BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN APPROACHES S FLA. BUT AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER LOW
REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE SE U.S./N FLA REGION AND THIS
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR CONTINUED THREAT FOR PM
CONVECTION. FLOW PATTERN TODAY IS SOUTHERLY AND THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROGH THE END OF THE WEEK SO HAVE LEFT HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES. OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, GFS HAS
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE SPLITTING WITH THE MAIN WAVE TRACKING W
INTO THE YUCATAN REGION WHILE THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE
SPLITS OFF AND REMAINS JUST TO OUR EAST. SO NO REAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BUT PWAT TO STAY AT JUST AOB 2 INCHES.