Joe B and TW
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Joe B and TW
Joe thinks the southern part of the TW will come W across the NW Caribbean and into the W GOM. He is basically throwing out the developement shown by the models off the SE US. He does expect some energy to move N to the SE US but nothing like the models are showing.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I partially disagree with Joe and partially with the CMC/GFS. As noted in the 00z GFS/CMC thread:
There are still convective feedback issues, but I wouldn't say the rogue/NE'er type situation is out of the question nor would I fully discount the possibility of a surface low. Some of the wave energy is popping further north around the MLL/ULL off SW FL. The transfer of heat is piling up some energy that way. However, the bulk of the energy is still in the Caribbean moving W-WNW. That's where I'd be looking for anything significant. The GFS and CMC are putting the majority of their proverbial eggs into one basket when there appear to be two
I think Joe is guilty of the same thing that the models are, he's just guilty of it on the other side. Ultimately, he's probably more correct than the models, but don't be surprised to see something of at least some significance off the SE coast in the near term (+/- 3 days).
Steve
There are still convective feedback issues, but I wouldn't say the rogue/NE'er type situation is out of the question nor would I fully discount the possibility of a surface low. Some of the wave energy is popping further north around the MLL/ULL off SW FL. The transfer of heat is piling up some energy that way. However, the bulk of the energy is still in the Caribbean moving W-WNW. That's where I'd be looking for anything significant. The GFS and CMC are putting the majority of their proverbial eggs into one basket when there appear to be two
I think Joe is guilty of the same thing that the models are, he's just guilty of it on the other side. Ultimately, he's probably more correct than the models, but don't be surprised to see something of at least some significance off the SE coast in the near term (+/- 3 days).
Steve
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