Future SE Coast Disturbance a Merge

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I think that the ULL off the SW Coast of Florida that is moving through the straits now will be the main weather-maker for the southeast florida coast and later up into the carolinas. Here's why...
Even though the models are trying to develop the wave currently in the SE carribean on its own, I don't think it has a chance, especially because the ULL will not allow it too. Rather, I think a piece of energy from the wave will split off and merge/enhance the ULL and give it more juice.
(The rest of the wave will head towards the west/wnw into the western carribean. I believe into the yucatan and possibly southern BOC before upper level patterns will decide its next course. I haven't looked at these much yet to determine the path thereafter in the long term.)
Since the Ridge is going to be in the way, this ULL and its enhancing wave action won't have a lot of places to go other than towards the north as the ridge moves in and tries to expand into the southeast coast. The squeezeplay will be on, forcing the ULL low north and eventually NW into the SE coast. I think the ridge will build in rather quickly, so I don't think the ULL will get much farther north than Savannah before it has to be forced inland to drench the carolinas.
Well, that's my take on the June action right now. -something to watch, but nothing truly tropical that will develop into a named storm yet. Maybe in 2 more weeks though we could be looking at the southern carribean for some interesting blob that gets pulled nw...