Invest 95L is up!!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... YLE=tables

Will this become Bret Jr???

[Scorpion]

Come on baby you can do it

[mobilebay]

Good job Matt! Boy what I would not give for a Visible loop right now!

[mobilebay]

Getting pretty interesting down their.

[loon]

Matt, for your sake I hope something comes out of this, because pretty much every person on here (met or otherwise) has told you this was nothing and will become nothing no way no how. I've been watching it and enjoyed your comments and links on it. Congrats on not giving up on it....be interesting to see what everyone has to say about it now

[mobilebay]

Well here is the NHC model run. looks like it's going into Mexico.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05062804

[mobilebay]

Well here is the NHC model run. looks like it's going into Mexico. Not gaining a lot of Latitude.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05062804

[loon]

It should go to Mexico, its being blocked by the stuff over us here in Texas keeping the moisture away. Only chance would be if it slowed or stalled for a day or two.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Thanks loon...


Also the Gfs is starting to take it more northward. The Lbar is the only hurricane model agreeing at this time. But a trough over the midwest drops down by around 36 to 48 hours. That could help move the system more northwestward. Also I'v read hurricane Brets Advisories it was forecasted to move very little but to the west or west-northwest into central Mexico. It turns out it moved into south-central Texas. Lets see if the son fellows an its foot steps.

[senorpepr]

Invest (NA / 95L) (28/0000Z)
Position: 19.2°N 93°W (170 miles WSW from Campeche, Mexico)
Winds: 25 mph
Pressure: 1010 mb / 29.83''
Dvorak Est: Too Weak

[southerngale]

Matt, for your sake I hope something comes out of this, because pretty much every person on here (met or otherwise) has told you this was nothing and will become nothing no way no how. I've been watching it and enjoyed your comments and links on it. Congrats on not giving up on it....be interesting to see what everyone has to say about it now

Yeah good job, but I know at least a few mets said in the BOC thread that it was quite possible that it would develop but it would likely go into Mexico.

[loon]

I agree, there were both....I was just trying to back Matt a bit because he has taken alot of bull over this particular swirl.
I just like to see storms, so I'm just happy SOMETHING happened

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Cmc,Gfs 00z is now pushing it to 23 maybe 24 north. Interesting thing is the models seem to went to cut a piece to the north. In which could mean that they seems to went to have it both ways(Meanly the cmc)???

[Steve]

I'm interested in seeing what happens with the regional energy
when the Pacific Coast of Mexico flares up in the morning
like it has been doing for most of the past week (with or
without named entities). The GFS and CMC rainfall loops
still take a couple of impulses toward the FL Panhandle.
It looks like them and southern Georgia will continue to get
the bulk of the rain. If 95L stays weak and moves slowly,
we could eventually see a wetside squall or two in SE LA and MS.
That stuff's been offshore all day.

Steve

[loon]

I can't tell where the center of circ is but (i think because of the convection) it looks like its moving west fast..

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Loon, that is the convection spreading westward. The center is near/under the new blow up at 19.2/93 west. It is moving slowly to the west-northwest. Also the spreading of the convection could mean that the system is getting better oreganized.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[tailgater]

Here's another possibility the circulation is elongated probably since it is part of the surface trough and IF that is the case, then there would be a chance that the center would relocate north or northeastward in conjunction with the trough axis.

[Normandy]

Hmm....I still dont think it develops. Looking at the IR2 on NHC's site, I spot the center near the coast....if its moving westward or wnw then it doesn't have much time. Just my opinion.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The surface obs show that it doe's have a LLC. One near the northeast quad shown winds of over 21 mph. With gust up to 25 mph. Clearly this doe's have a surface cirulation. With convection blow near it. All the hurricane models take it north of 20 north. In give it about 36 to 48 before landfall. It should be just far enough away from land not to stop development(Larry 2002). So its a watch in or see.

Also the center is moving slowly around 5 mph to the west-northwest. Its around that new area of convection.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

.5 north/.7 west


WHXX01 KWBC 280600
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL952005) ON 20050628 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050628 0600 050628 1800 050629 0600 050629 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.7N 93.7W 20.4N 95.2W 21.1N 96.8W 21.8N 98.5W
BAMM 19.7N 93.7W 20.5N 95.1W 21.0N 96.6W 21.7N 98.2W
A98E 19.7N 93.7W 20.8N 94.9W 21.9N 96.0W 23.0N 97.4W
LBAR 19.7N 93.7W 20.6N 95.3W 21.9N 97.4W 23.2N 99.8W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 37KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050630 0600 050701 0600 050702 0600 050703 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.5N 100.2W 23.7N 103.7W 24.0N 106.4W 23.9N 108.5W
BAMM 22.4N 99.9W 23.9N 102.9W 24.4N 105.4W 24.4N 107.6W
A98E 24.1N 99.1W 27.2N 101.9W 29.5N 101.8W 32.1N 97.0W
LBAR 24.5N 102.1W 26.6N 105.4W 27.9N 106.6W 29.2N 104.9W
SHIP 42KTS 47KTS 50KTS 50KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.7N LONCUR = 93.7W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 18.6N LONM12 = 92.4W DIRM12 = 321DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 17.1N LONM24 = 91.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....