Do we need to watch Central Gulf?

#1 Postby **tailgater** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 7:55 am

The T-storms in this area have flared up pretty good this morning and shear has lessened?

#2 Postby **bfez1** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 8:33 am

Quote from our local met:

A storm is likely forming in the lower Gulf, this morning. Hurricane center is acknowledging this. However, it should be like Bret in 1999, in other words, stay south.

We are seeing the northern piece of the Gulf trof, today to enhance shower activity. However, this will split and we will turn more dry than wet by Thursday/Friday.

Should be fun to watch the lower Gulf, today and tomorrow.

David Bernard
Meteorologist
WWL-TV
1024 North Rampart Street
New Orleans, LA 70116

mobilebay · #3 Postby **mobilebay** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 8:40 am

The GFS develops this low just south of Mobile. Whats interesting is that it is actually stronger the entire time at 850MB than the BOC low.

#4 Postby **patsmsg** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 9:17 am

Yes...We ought to be watching until about November.

bbadon · #5 Postby **bbadon** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 9:55 am

bump, the central gulf is starting to look suspicious.

#6 Postby **Steve** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 9:59 am

LMAO pastmsg
---------------------------------------
I'm not watching it for any development, but we did just get a nice tropical downpour in the CBD of New Orleans. Woohoo! The GFS and CMC from Sunday progged the majority of the moisture plume/surge to be over the panhandle of FL with some rain around these parts. Looking at radar, I'd bet it rains 4 more times before midnight.

Steve

PTrackerLA · #7 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 10:05 am

You lucky dog Steve. I doubt we'll see anything this far west today, the ridge is just too strong. I just wish we'd get back into a typical summer pattern. I miss the deep blue skies with tropical downpours breaking out by midday, it's been so hazy you can barely see blue sky the past week around here...downright miserable if you ask me!

#8 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 10:13 am

I had WKRG on this morning (Mobile), they only discussed the
BOC, nothing else.

#9 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 10:20 am

dhweather wrote:I had WKRG on this morning (Mobile), they only discussed the
BOC, nothing else.

Just because they don't mention it doesn't mean it doesn't exists. I wouldn't put too much weight on what the models are predicting right now with this current weather pattern. I'm SHOCKED to read that N.O. is getting rainfall when I read their NWS discussion yesterday it seemed like the possiblities were slim and none. Oh well I guess you live and die by the models
if you rely on them too much.

#10 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 11:25 am

The central GOM is boiling but nothing organized.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=5

#11 Postby **skysummit** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 12:14 pm

Local met in NOLA said to keep our eyes on it till the weekend.

#12 Postby **drezee** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 3:19 pm

There is a Low in the Central gulf!
26.3N 92.3W

#13 Postby **loon** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 3:21 pm

links? urls?

Kennethb · #14 Postby **Kennethb** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 3:30 pm

I can see at least two other swirls besides the one in the BOC. Perhaps more under the clouds.

#15 Postby **loon** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 3:33 pm

Well my untrained eye can't pick them out that well until there are pretty swirls with a nice eye =] ...however! as far as thunderstorms go, sures looks like the GOM and some of the Carrib really got cooking in the last hour...lots of flare....its mother nature flexing before she starts bowling strikes.....

gonna be a heck of a year...me thinks

#16 Postby **greg_kfdm_tv** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 3:35 pm

Looking at visible loops there is a low level swirl near 26.3/92.4. Moving west about 10-15 mph.

Lots of shear from the southwest over it.

vacanechaser · #17 Postby **vacanechaser** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 3:39 pm

greg_kfdm_tv wrote:Looking at visible loops there is a low level swirl near 26.3/92.4. Moving west about 10-15 mph.

Lots of shear from the southwest over it.

Saw it too.. However, like he said there is a lot of shear oin the area.. And that whole area north of BOC is getting stretched out.. Doubt there will be anything to talk about...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

x-y-no · #18 Postby **x-y-no** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 3:45 pm

greg_kfdm_tv wrote:Looking at visible loops there is a low level swirl near 26.3/92.4. Moving west about 10-15 mph.

Lots of shear from the southwest over it.

Sure enough ... there is.

To the extent that the BOC system keeps going or intensifies, though, that shear isn't going away. Maybe conditions will improve once the BOC system goes ashore, though.

Jan

#19 Postby **tailgater** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 4:49 pm

Do you recognize a pattern Calvin spins up then wound down last, this morning "Bret" spins up will wind down tonight, tomorrow Cindy ! 8-)

mobilebay · #20 Postby **mobilebay** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 5:55 pm

there is an exposed LLC in that area. GFS has been hinting at this on and off for a couple of days now!

Do we need to watch Central Gulf?

Do we need to watch Central Gulf?

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