TLH NWS Forecast Discussion

[TampaFl]

Great statement every one should heed.

FXUS62 KTAE 040044
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
843 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2005

.SYNOPSIS...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND LESS UPPER LVL SUPPORT
TONIGHT...COVERAGE ON THE SHRA/TSRA THIS EVNG WAS LESS THAN LAST
NIGHT. STILL DID SEE SOME IMPRESSIVE LIGHTNING DISPLAYS THROUGHOUT
THE AREA...EVEN MOVING THROUGH THE TAE AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING. NO
SVR REPORTS WITH ANY STORMS ALTHOUGH WE STILL HAVE A FEW TS MVG INTO
OUR ALABAMA COUNTIES.

00Z TAE SOUNDING SHOWS PW DROP SLIGHTLY TO 1.79 IN...CAPE OF 1795
J/KG...AND LI OF -3.9. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HRS ALTHOUGH WE WILL MOST LIKELY SEE THE DVPMT OF SOME ISOLD
OFFSHORE CONVECTION AGAIN BY EARLY MORNING. THEREFORE WILL LEAVE LOW
END CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE SE CWA AS THIS ACTIVITY MVS ONSHORE.

BIG NEWS THIS AFTN WAS THE DESIGNATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE.
IT IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND HAS
REMAINED NEAR STATIONARY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HRS. IN A RECENT
UPDATE FROM THE NHC THEY STATE THAT IT MAY REACH TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH BEFORE IT MVS INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT OR
EARLY TOMORROW. THE LONG RANGE PATH FOR THE STORM TAKES IT INTO THE
UPR TX COAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK. THE RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD IN
OVER OUR AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD KEEP THE FLOW OVER THE
GULF FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND KEEP THE STORM IN THE WESTERN GULF. BUT
AS WITH ANY STORM...ANY INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD REMAIN INFORMED
WITH THE LATEST UPDATES ISSUED FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER. FOR FURTHER
DISCUSSIONS AND GRAPHICS ON THIS STORM SEE HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.
&&

.MARINE...CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD...NO CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH SHRA AND TSRA DIMINISHING...ONLY TAF SITES WHERE
ACTIVITY IS FCST OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS ARE DHN...VLD AND ABY.
SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT LIGHT FOG AND LOW
CIGS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS JUST
BEFORE AND AROUND SUNRISE. THESE CONDS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN SIMILAR TO TODAY...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THE CU
FIELD AND SHRA ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING THEN TS DVLPG BY AFTN.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

&&

$$

MCNATT