Brief Personal Forecast Discussion of 03L

[DoctorHurricane2003]

S2K DISCLAIMER: The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

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This discussion is brief, and I will not be providing a forecast graphic or a specific intensity forecast. The reasoning will be given later in the discussion.

03L has developed quickly today, and is currently centered off of the coast of the Yucatan, moving slowly to the NW. It could easily become a tropical storm before striking land. 03L is a very large system that will affect a wide area. All persons with interests in Cuba, the Yucatan, and Gulf of Mexico need to closely monitor the official products on 03L.

In terms of a directional forecast, 03L should continue in the same general direction, with some recurvature. Expect a landfall along the northern gulf coast between Freeport, TX and Venice, LA in or around 72 hours......although with latest guidance this may need to be adjusted to the right tomorrow.

In terms of strength, this is difficult to call. After exiting the Yucatan, it should intensify steadily, however, a 48 hour shear projection chart shows exceptionally low shear and a good outflow jet to its north. This, coupled with high SSTs, can easily lead to rapid intensification of 03L. I am not giving a specific intensity forecast for the following reasons:
1. Not to be alarming.
2. 03L is fairly new and could die out.
3. Conditions could change.

I should be ready to make a full forecast in 24-36 hours. (hopefully)

*END

[DoctorHurricane2003]

I meant to add an intensity change forecasts (OOPS!)

0-12 HR: NONE/SLOW INCREASE
12-24 HR: SLOW/STEADY INCREASE
24-36 HR: STEADY INCREASE
36-48 HR: RAPID INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE
48-72 HR: RAPID INTENSIFICATION LIKELY*
72-96 HR: STEADY WEAKENING
96-120 HR: STEADY WEAKENING TO DISSIPATION

*= Also watch for eyewall replacement cycles if it gets beyond moderate Category 3 status.

[GulfBreezer]

As always..........very good forecast and we really appreciate you!!