Models reaching concensus, E. Carib-5 Days, very close to FL

Foladar · #1 Postby **Foladar** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:54 am

I usually lurk, but couldn't this have been posted in one of the 82349834 TD 4 threads? or one of the 23498 model threads? It's getting out of hand and hard to realize what is what due to so many threads of the same nature.

#2 Postby **Cookiely** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:30 am

Maybe I'm stupid but I've always wondered what difference does it make if a new thread is made versus adding the same info on another thread. It doesn't take any longer to read one than another. Does it cost more money for the website per thread? When I come on the site I just start at the top and proceed down the page reading each one. I see people complain about this all the time and I don't understand.

wxboy · #3 Postby **wxboy** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:33 am

It seems the models are shifting farther and farther west. I think this thing could go right through the Yucatan Channel.

#4 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:35 am

wxboy wrote:It seems the models are shifting farther and farther west. I think this thing could go right through the Yucatan Channel.

Right through the channel...into the GOM. *sigh*

wxboy · #5 Postby **wxboy** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:37 am

yep. another GOM storm. ALTHOUGH.... Cindy will probably have weakened the ridge enough that the storm will recurve once in the GOM!

Rainband · #6 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:19 am

Hope not

#7 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:39 am

Well the local Mets here have definately taken notice. Yesterday morning, in a rare move by Bay News 9, they pretty much pointed at thsi things future path and explained why TS3 was heading its direction and how last year Charley headed its direction, creating a graphic of the ridge and how storms follow around the periphery. They went so far as to then add that the ridge will not be so favorably placed by next weekend, when TS4 comes up "our way". They didn't adjust the ridging graphic, but laid out the scenario so that anyone watching would "get it" that this thing will likely curve to the N then NE once in the GOM. Later that afternoon and evening, when "Josh" was the weatherman, he left out discussion on TD4's future, simply mentioning that we needed to keep a very close eye on this through the week. He is usually the last to be an alarmist. If he starts forecasting towards the "board up your windows folks" line, then it is already obvious something is coming. -but Bay News 9 doing that earlier show made me pay very close attention!! :eek:

jimvb · #8 Postby **jimvb** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:42 am

The latest GFS (20050705 0600Z) suggests that TD 4 will keep right on going and hit the Gulf Coast at the same place that Cindy will have hit - in Mississippi or Eastern Louisiana, or maybe even farther west.

Rainband · #9 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:43 am

I saw Josh 4am this morning. He did the same thing. Time will tell.

gkrangers · #10 Postby **gkrangers** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:44 am

The model tracks are already too far north, becuase on initialization they have the storm moving northwest from its current position.

Its moving west...I think Hispaniola is spared and we will have a serious situation (cane strength wise) on our hands in a few days.

#11 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:49 am

I've learned that Bay News 9 merely runs a repeating loop after their 11:49pm update right up until after 5am. Unless there is a storm baring directly down on us, like when we thought Charley was heading our way, then they had a forecaster in there overnight.

jrod · #12 Postby **jrod** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:48 am

The latest computer models will shift te forecast to the left because the storm is moving due west and all the models were already pulling it north. I think it will slow down in about 2 or 3 days and make a turn for the north. However with the track its on now everyone from Central America, all of the GoM and Cuba needs to be on the lookout while things are looking better for Haiti by the hour. Just my opinion on the system and not a forecast.

#13 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:56 am

Cookiely wrote:Maybe I'm stupid but I've always wondered what difference does it make if a new thread is made versus adding the same info on another thread. It doesn't take any longer to read one than another. Does it cost more money for the website per thread? When I come on the site I just start at the top and proceed down the page reading each one. I see people complain about this all the time and I don't understand.

Ditto

#14 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:57 am

Good post, Kevin, easy to read and thorough.

Rainband · #15 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:58 am

dixiebreeze wrote:
Cookiely wrote:Maybe I'm stupid but I've always wondered what difference does it make if a new thread is made versus adding the same info on another thread. It doesn't take any longer to read one than another. Does it cost more money for the website per thread? When I come on the site I just start at the top and proceed down the page reading each one. I see people complain about this all the time and I don't understand.

Ditto

It's about keeping the board neat and organized. It also makes it easier for the Staff :wink:

x-y-no · #16 Postby **x-y-no** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:59 am

dixiebreeze wrote:
Cookiely wrote:Maybe I'm stupid but I've always wondered what difference does it make if a new thread is made versus adding the same info on another thread. It doesn't take any longer to read one than another. Does it cost more money for the website per thread? When I come on the site I just start at the top and proceed down the page reading each one. I see people complain about this all the time and I don't understand.

Ditto

Well, the issue is that when the board gets real busy, important information will scroll off the first page in a hurry if everybody and his brother is starting new threads.

Now the tropcal analysis forum solves much of that problem, but there's still good info in this forum which would get lost if we don't at least try to keep a handle on it.

Jan

jax · #17 Postby **jax** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:04 am

the only bad thing is when a tread gets 3-4 pages long...
they tend to get off topic. I'll go the the last post... and
you can't tell what they are talking about (usually someone
arguing with another member). I'ts nice to see it all in 1 to 2 pages.
JMHO... Like this this thread seems to have run it's coarse....
Perfect example... but this one did it in One Page!

#18 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:14 am

This will be weird if LA/MS/AL is the 2005 version of Florida 2004.

Then again, I did say that after NCEP put their summer outlook out over
a couple of months ago.

Rainband · #19 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:24 am

dhweather wrote:This will be weird if LA/MS/AL is the 2005 version of Florida 2004.

Then again, I did say that after NCEP put their summer outlook out over
a couple of months ago.

too early to make a call like that but....You never know. Buy some batteries if so. I feel sooorrry for you.

#20 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:27 am

Rainband wrote:
dhweather wrote:This will be weird if LA/MS/AL is the 2005 version of Florida 2004.

Then again, I did say that after NCEP put their summer outlook out over
a couple of months ago.

too early to make a call like that but....You never know. Buy some batteries if so. I feel sooorrry for you.

Already got 'em - I stock up each May!!!

Models reaching concensus, E. Carib-5 Days, very close to FL

Following Cindy

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