DENNIS IS TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING GENERALLY WNW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW STRONG THE RIDGE WILL BE FOR LATE WEEK OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOW QUICKLY CINDY LEAVES THE PICTURE AND HOW MUCH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LEFT BEHIND ARE STILL UNKNOWN AND COULD AFFECT THE LONG-RANGE TRACK OF DENNIS.
The model guidance...over the last several runs has been in excellent agreement (the NHC track continues to be an overlay of the CONU track...which has been a very tight line run over run).
However...agreement does not always imply accuracy. If this thing continues to zoom WNW at 18 knots...and if Cindy is slow getting out...the track could go either way depending on how much ridging is left between the two systems.
My $ right now is a track a bit to the west of the current NHC forecast track in the next 72 hours...and from there it's up in the air.
MW