Dennis forecast #2: Major storm near Florida by weekend

[Josephine96]

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS
NJN WEATHER CENTER
615 AM WED JULY 6TH 2005

Tropical Storm Dennis is quickly become better organized as he churns through the Caribbean this morning. Dennis winds have shot up to 60 mph and with the warm water ahead of it.. he may become a hurricane by today.

Dennis is in a very healthy environment, very little shear. Water temps in the low to mid 80's. Perfect for this storm to do nothing but strengthen.

Dennis should continue to trudge through the Caribbean and it should make it's closest approach if not a landfall on the SE or Gulf Coast by late Saturday.

Some models bring into Florida, some Louisiana or Alabama. It is way too early to tell. My official forecast brings the storm over Cuba and then making landfall somewhere just north of Tampa/St Pete after it is shot north.

As Cindy moves out, this may cause the Bermuda High to weaken, which may steer Dennis in a different direction, possibly towards the West Coast of Florida. Dennis will become a dangerous storm and should be watched very carefully.

Here's my experimental forecast on Dennis:
Today: In the Caribbean, staying well south of the DR. Max Winds: 75 mph
Thursday:Passing just slightly to the north of Jamaica. Max Winds: 85 mph
Friday: Approaching Cuba's western side. Max Winds: 100 mph
Saturday:Into the Eastern GOM.. Paralell to the Keys. Max Winds: 110 mph
Sunday: Possible landfall just north of Tampa. Max Winds: 120 mph

Comments always appreciated

DISCLAIMER:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanefloyd5]

i think dennis will become a cat.4 hurricane

[kevin]

I knew you'd have it hit Florida.

[Anonymous]

I believe the ridge will weaken enough to swing it up north enough to make landfall in Maine.

Updates posted soon.

[canegrl04]

Dennis seems reminiscent of Charley.He bombed minutes before landfall on Florida's west coast

[mf_dolphin]

ADMIN Note: I deleted a couple of posts here. It's ok to disagree but we will do it by explaining why we disagree not name call.

[Brent]

I knew you'd have it hit Florida.

Nice forecast... except I think it's too far east.

[Anonymous]

I agree with your intensity forecast, however I disagree with your track. I think that Louisiana/Mississippi have the best chance of getting Dennis.

[tallbunch]

Dennis is going to NC

[Nimbus]

Florida is becoming a less likely landfall by the hour.
First off we are unlikely to have a digging trough in the central gulf as we did with Charley to steer the storm east.
Second it appears Cindy is moving NE at a fast enough clip so that no weakness will be left over the pan handle.
Third Dennis seems to be tracking a little further south than the models would indicate.

[Air Force Met]

Florida is becoming a less likely landfall by the hour.
First off we are unlikely to have a digging trough in the central gulf as we did with Charley to steer the storm east.
Second it appears Cindy is moving NE at a fast enough clip so that no weakness will be left over the pan handle.
Third Dennis seems to be tracking a little further south than the models would indicate.

1) - Correct
2) - Correct
3) - Correct

That is all (in my best M*A*S*H voice)

[AL Chili Pepper]

I knew you'd have it hit Florida.

Predictable

[rsdoug1981]

Florida is becoming a less likely landfall by the hour.
First off we are unlikely to have a digging trough in the central gulf as we did with Charley to steer the storm east.
Second it appears Cindy is moving NE at a fast enough clip so that no weakness will be left over the pan handle.
Third Dennis seems to be tracking a little further south than the models would indicate.

Everyone seems to forget that Charley was affected by an unusually powerful August cold front. I remember it was 57 degrees in Baton Rouge. There shouldn't be any unexpected eastward turns with Dennis.

[Tommedic]

I agree with strength. Though I consider stronger very possible. As for path, I believe that none of us should rule out anywhere from Florida to Louisiana. Most likely is surely in same area as Cindy. However, within next few days, any trough development, change in forward speed could change everything. IMHO, I believe that Dennis will push along parallel to west coast of Florida and then make his move. I lean more left than right at this time. May all in his path be protected by God's grace and mercy. Tom

[Agua]

Dennis is going to NC

"This is a Carolina Storm!"

[x-y-no]

A recurving path into the Florida peninsula is extremely unlikely. If the peninsulai is to be affected, it would have to the result of an earlier turn north than the models predict. I won't rule that out entirely, but if he doesn't slow down real soon (like by late today), I think that possibility will be gone as well.

Jan

[jamima]

Isnt there a ridge moving down and the high over fla is moving east? and if thats the case that should steer Dennis?

[iluvseashore]

Is it possible for Dennis to come close enough to Florida to skirt the coast before making its move for landfall in the panhandle?

[Canelaw99]

Isnt there a ridge moving down and the high over fla is moving east? and if thats the case that should steer Dennis?

Our local CBS met was talking about that - the jet stream is supposed to be dipping down, and this high that's protecting FL is supposed to be moving east...the timing comes in with when the high moves east because Dennis will most likely be skirting the edge of it, bringing it north, and then it will get picked up somewhat by the stream, taking it northeast. So...again, it's just a waiting and watching game....and for us here at Storm2K, it's a speculation game

[huricanwatcher]

Dennis is going to NC

silly just plain silly