Effect of Mountainous Cuba on Ridge Steering

[gatorcane]

What effect will Mountainous Cuba have on how much the ridge will be to impact Dennis. Could we expect even more of a northerly component as the mountainous terrain disrupts the ridge flow?

[gatorcane]

[dolphinslady]

No way, that track looks way scary. The Treasure Coast cannot get hit again this year. We are still recovering, big time.

[jrod]

The mountains are on the east side of Cuba and my guess is Dennis will make it just to the west of them, like a lot of mean storms he seems like he is intentionally dancing around unfavorable terrain.

Im fairly certain that the they will have less of an effect on Dennis than they did on Georges in '99, and that still was a cat 2 when it reached the keys.

And dont forget about the super warm SSTs between Cuba and Fl. h

[Windspeed]

The province of Granma contains the penninsula that juts out west from Eastern Cuba. The penninsula's dominant geographic feature is the Sierra Maestra mountain range that stretches west from Santiago De Cuba to the tip of the penninsula. At an altitude of 6,469 feet (1,972 meters), Pico Turquino is the highest peak in the Sierra Maestra, and also the heighest point of elevation in Cuba.

If Hurricane Dennis's center moves directly over the province of Granma and the Sierra Maestra, its circulation will be altered and weakening will occur. However, if the circulation slips just past the western tip of the penninsula, inflow probably will not be altered all that much because the Sierra Maesra Range actually bends back from west to a southwest direction and may actually direct inflow towards the center. Also, steering flow of the mid-layer ridge won't be affected very much, since the range itself is not very wide and also since the range itself runs most East to West. ESE to SE flow in the steering layer will likely continue driving Dennis on a WNW to NW path close to the Cuban coastline, putting Central and Western Cuba under threat for direct landfall.

However, due to how far WSW the penninsula of the Granma Province juts from the Cuban mainland, it is very possible that location may experience a direct hit. The community of Pilon, which is on the southwestern coastline of the penninsula, looks to be a threatened by the northeastern eyewall as Dennis passes just to its southwest.