Bigger Problem than 5 Day Forecasts

[MWatkins]

After seriously considering the 5 day forecast thing, there is in my opinion a much bigger issue...specifically to residents along the gulf coast...but it could be anyone in the hurricane belt. That is...what should the NHC do in short-fuse types of situations?

For example, and we saw this with the opener of last season, should the NHC issue a watch or a warning when TC formation is imminent, but has not yet happened. Consider that the TPC will always wait until a storm is at least a depression before issuing watches...this caught residents of Texas with their pants down when they were clearly threatened. And what about a situation where a system could rapidly deepen once a low closes off. Why WAIT until a TC exists before putting up a watch? That's the equavilent of the SPC waiting until at least one tornado develops from a TX system before putting up a watch. Usually...those guys at the SPC are so good at what they do...they can put a watch up with nary a cloud in the sky and be right 99% of the time.

I think the technology is good enough that we can start posting watches when TC formation is very likely to occur...and not wait until it actually occurs.

MW

[cycloneye]

Mike I agree with you 100%.

[mf_dolphin]

I see your point Mike and don't disagree. However, I think they will be slow to change. There's really nothing to prevent them issueing them now except history.

[vbhoutex]

Agree 100% Mike!!!

There really does, IMO, need to be a review of the procedures or parameters for posting watches and warnings. The only problem I see that might come from posting a watch before a TC has formed is if it didn't happen and then we go into the usual complacency scenario of "they blew another forecast and I'm not trusting them anymore". All I have to say to someone with that kind of thought process is "could you please write down the names and phone numbers of your next of kin so we may contact them once the storm is over?"

The five day forecast does serve a purpose and could be useful in getting the complacent millions to think about the fact they could be in danger, especially if it is used properly along with the media. The problem with it is the still large track and intensity variations that are evident out past day 3. If used improperly by the hyping media there could be some unneccesary panic by those who are not aware of the weather and particularly TC's. However with the fact that the 4 and 5 day portions will be noted as outlook and not as forecast there is no reason for a person with reasonable amounts of knowledge to misinterpret them.

Short fuse systems have always been a problem and as I said above this problem needs to be studied and addressed.

[Rainband]

After seriously considering the 5 day forecast thing, there is in my opinion a much bigger issue...specifically to residents along the gulf coast...but it could be anyone in the hurricane belt. That is...what should the NHC do in short-fuse types of situations?

For example, and we saw this with the opener of last season, should the NHC issue a watch or a warning when TC formation is imminent, but has not yet happened. Consider that the TPC will always wait until a storm is at least a depression before issuing watches...this caught residents of Texas with their pants down when they were clearly threatened. And what about a situation where a system could rapidly deepen once a low closes off. Why WAIT until a TC exists before putting up a watch? That's the equavilent of the SPC waiting until at least one tornado develops from a TX system before putting up a watch. Usually...those guys at the SPC are so good at what they do...they can put a watch up with nary a cloud in the sky and be right 99% of the time.

I think the technology is good enough that we can start posting watches when TC formation is very likely to occur...and not wait until it actually occurs.

MW

I agree MW..but maybe they could have a special set of watches ..that are issued..maybe an iminent formation alertdue to favorable conditions and computer model guidence...the NHC in miami has issued............. Something along those lines!! would get my attention and still be backed by mentioning that development is iminent..

[vbhoutex]

After seriously considering the 5 day forecast thing, there is in my opinion a much bigger issue...specifically to residents along the gulf coast...but it could be anyone in the hurricane belt. That is...what should the NHC do in short-fuse types of situations?

For example, and we saw this with the opener of last season, should the NHC issue a watch or a warning when TC formation is imminent, but has not yet happened. Consider that the TPC will always wait until a storm is at least a depression before issuing watches...this caught residents of Texas with their pants down when they were clearly threatened. And what about a situation where a system could rapidly deepen once a low closes off. Why WAIT until a TC exists before putting up a watch? That's the equavilent of the SPC waiting until at least one tornado develops from a TX system before putting up a watch. Usually...those guys at the SPC are so good at what they do...they can put a watch up with nary a cloud in the sky and be right 99% of the time.

I think the technology is good enough that we can start posting watches when TC formation is very likely to occur...and not wait until it actually occurs.

MW

I agree MW..but maybe they could have a special set of watches ..that are issued..maybe an iminent formation alertdue to favorable conditions and computer model guidence...the NHC in miami has issued............. Something along those lines!! would get my attention and still be backed by mentioning that development is iminent..

GOOD IDEA JOHNATHAN!!!

[Rainband]

Thanks David

[Amanzi]

Great discussion MW.

John I think you really have a good solution there!

[Rainband]

Great discussion MW.

John I think you really have a good solution there!

Thanks Bron..Hope you are doing well

[ColdFront77]

I agree with the points in this thread. There is a lot to look forward to, both the new five day forecasts for tropical systems and the potential busy season ahead.

[Aslkahuna]

but they do not hit 99% of their watch boxes. The best thing about the new 5 day format on the hurricane advisories is that it pinpoints the safest location to be when a hurricane approaches (the 120 hour forecast position) as the storm is least likely to to be there given the average forecast error that far out. What NHC could do is something like JTWC does and that is put out Formation Alerts for systems that they believe have the potential for development. JT has proven over the years that the concept works and it certainly draws the eyes of the forecasters in the field.

Steve