NW again ?

[Windtalker]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html Last couple frames show that Dennis (to me anyhow) seems to have resumed its NW movement...I think he will cross over "Cienfuegos" well east of Havana. I think with the UUL coming in from the west out of Texas, the Keys and SW Fl are not going to fare to well.....only my gut feeling.

[tampastorm]

not to keep repeating... but. I keep saying the WNW wobble does not mean much until today. This is when we will see what the ULL in the texas area does. Does it push far enough down to erode and retreat the bermuda high? If so more northward if not. West it is.

[skysummit]

He's been moving NW the entire day yesterday and over night. Sure he wobbles this way and that way, but overall it's been NW. There's no "resuming".

[loon]

He's been moving NW the entire day yesterday and over night. Sure he wobbles this way and that way, but overall it's been NW. There's no "resuming".

I'd have to disagree here, 6 hrs of WNW was even noted in the advis. 6hrs is more than a wobble imho, but Stewart even called it a wobble, so whatever.

Where he crosses Cuba will decide if its a wobble. They still call for a southcentral crossing....if he goes across in the west, you know something has changed, otherwise, he is on track

[skysummit]

He's been moving NW the entire day yesterday and over night. Sure he wobbles this way and that way, but overall it's been NW. There's no "resuming".

I'd have to disagree here, 6 hrs of WNW was even noted in the advis. 6hrs is more than a wobble imho, but Stewart even called it a wobble, so whatever.

Where he crosses Cuba will decide if its a wobble. They still call for a southcentral crossing....if he goes across in the west, you know something has changed, otherwise, he is on track

Yes, he has been on more of a WNW track lately and has slowed down, but what I'm saying is "overall". If he continues moving WNW for the next few hours, then I'll say he's shifted. Maybe I'm stubborn, but I usually don't change my mind in direction for hours and hours

[MannyG]

Don't really care what way it is moving now. More important is the enviroment in front of it.

- Right now the high is holding; not building and not going away.
- Right now there is a SW to NE flow in the gulf after the high in the gulf.
- Right now the high protects the west coast of Florida and the SW to NE flow prevents it from moving further west than Alabama.

The question is will the players listed above change. Look at the high; look at the SW to NE flow; do not look at every single wobble.

[tampastorm]

Thank you!!! I have been saying the exact thing for the last 24 hours!!!!

[wxwatcher91]

you left out the ULL coming down from the Great Lakes

also... its current track does matter somewhat

personally, looking at the satellite, I think Dennis has started to take a turn towards the north... I think it will be crossing Cube within 6 hours

[tampastorm]

I think this is great! Instead everyone -removed- we are actually looking at the factors!! Thats a shocker,lol

[MannyG]

you left out the ULL coming down from the Great Lakes

also... its current track does matter somewhat

personally, looking at the satellite, I think Dennis has started to take a turn towards the north... I think it will be crossing Cube within 6 hours

I know about the ULL coming from the Great Lakes, but in an effort to keep it simple I am just looking at the Gulf. If the ULL is powerful enough it will push things further to the east, if it is not and the storm slows down then the high may build to the west, but that is too complicated for me. Just watching the Gulf.

[Air Force Met]

He's been moving NW the entire day yesterday and over night. Sure he wobbles this way and that way, but overall it's been NW. There's no "resuming".

Slight correction...he has not been moving NW overnight. The motion from 11PM last night to the 8AM advisory is 297...that's WNW. He went up 1.0 degrees...and west 1.9 degrees.

Now that being said...he will certainly wobble back to the NW. Why? Because as a hurricane approaches the western end of the ridge that is steering it...it feels out the ridge...it finds little weaknesses and streengths and stair steps along. BUt...until it truly gets to the western edge of the ridge...it will go back and forth b/w NW and WNW. You'll know it when the NW wobbles become more frequent than the WNW ones.

[tampastorm]

Northwest motion seems to have resumed, with the slowdown,hmmm, ULL ?????????

[BonesXL]

Yeah, it had been moving more wnw throughout the night but has resume a more nw movement. every west wobble is good for florida keys. Look out gulf states.