Question about steering flow in the Gulf

[N2FSU]

Take a look at the following WV loop over the US/Atlantic:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

It looks to me like the flow in the NW Gulf is SW to NE, and it appears an ULL is dropping down from the Great Lakes. On the other hand, I also see the ridge in the Atlantic reaching into FL.

For the mets and others on here with much more wisdom than myself:
Which tends to win out when two air masses are competing, and are the models historically very good at predicting this?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I was checking that out also. I don't know how strong that trough is(mets)? but it could be strong enough to erode more of the high away than currently thinking. It really all depends on how far SE it digs. Just a wait and see.

[N2FSU]

That's what I'm wondering also Mike... how far south will that ULL dig?
I guess that's why we're all so fascinated with this stuff, it changes minute to minute! On that note, I see the forward spped has decreased to 12 mph. According to other posts on here, a slowing of forward speed would possibly open the door for a more northerly movement as the high retreats and the ULL digs south.

[TampaFl]

Same here. I noticed that ULL/trough droping into the NW Gulf, along with the upper level winds sw to ne from about Pensacola sw to Corpus Christi. If this "digs " a little more or moves more to the se into the Central Gulf, would not that possibly have an effect on Dennis maybe turning a little sooner into the Eastern Gulf. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

[N2Storms]

Saw a Met on an Alabama station say this morning that there was high pressure building down in the SW Gulf and that would keep Dennis from going any further west than say MS/AL line. To me, if there was high pressure in the SW Gulf that would seem to steer it more westward. I don't know if he meant to say low pressure or if I'm just not understanding correctly.

[AL Chili Pepper]

The way I see it:

The flow SW/NE flow in the gulf is a boundary layer. The energy pushing it is the short-wave rotating through the midwest. This boundary is weakening and will continue to do so as the short-wave lifts out to the north and east.

The key player is the ridge that builds back behind the exiting wave. We could see Dennis as far west as Louisiana. I'd be less surprised to see Dennis in LA than Panama City.

[N2Storms]

The key player is the ridge that builds back behind the exiting wave. We could see Dennis as far west as Louisiana. I'd be less surprised to see Dennis in LA than Panama City.



I'm not trying to insinuate that Dennis will make landfall in Panama City, in fact, I'm hoping that we don't see any effects at all, I was merely posting what the met in Dothan, Al stated this morning.