12z UKMET is out...

[Steve]

As expected, it moved farther east to compromise with the previous runs and brings it into MS. I wanted to be first to post it so I gotta go look at that run again to make sure .

Steve

[dhweather]

Link?

[loon]

Let us know....

[jkt21787]

Its still a west outlier, although the Candian is similar too (I think its Mobile) The key will be if it goes east again at 0z.

[LAwxrgal]

It's scary that the model guidance is coming into line...

Mouth of the Mississippi to the Big Bend area of Florida IMO is in greatest risk. Unfortunately the bulk of this is Ivan territory, they absolutely CANNOT handle another major cane hit -- and one that potentially could be worse than the last one.

[Steve]

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

[goodlife]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2005070812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Looks like a Camille path, no?

[goodlife]

and here's the 12Z Canadian...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005070812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Both the 12Z UKMET and the 12Z Canadian have shifted a little east

[dhweather]

It's scary that the model guidance is coming into line...

Mouth of the Mississippi to the Big Bend area of Florida IMO is in greatest risk. Unfortunately the bulk of this is Ivan territory, they absolutely CANNOT handle another major cane hit -- and one that potentially could be worse than the last one.

Orange Beach to Pensacola would be beyond devastated if Dennis makes
landfall there. Many people are still living in FEMA temporary trailers, and
have tarps for a roof.

[crazycajuncane]

At T 60 it has New Orleans' soup bowl filled.

[dhweather]

Man, this isn't looking good at all.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DENNIS ANALYSED POSITION : 20.9N 79.4W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042005



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 08.07.2005 20.9N 79.4W INTENSE

00UTC 09.07.2005 22.2N 81.4W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 09.07.2005 23.8N 83.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 10.07.2005 25.2N 85.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 10.07.2005 27.2N 86.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 11.07.2005 29.6N 88.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 11.07.2005 31.6N 89.8W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 12.07.2005 33.6N 90.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 12.07.2005 35.7N 91.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 13.07.2005 36.5N 90.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 13.07.2005 37.7N 89.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 14.07.2005 37.2N 89.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 14.07.2005 37.2N 88.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE



Here is the text of the 12z run.

[Cape Verde]

I hope this model is wrong. That path would wipe out the offshore oil production, not to mention New Orleans.