Tropical depression 5#
10:30pm pst/1:30am est
Forecast 2#
The fifth tropical depression of the system, forms over the central Atlatnic....
Based on quickscat/Visible satellite shows that a clearly defined LLC had formed. A area of convection tonight had formed over this area of low pressure/LLC in which warrent the upgrade to tropical depression 5#. This makes this the earliest 5th earliest system to develop an histroy.
Current Cimss shear maps show that the cyclone, is with an a area of 5 to 8 knot shear. Which is extreamly favable for fast development. In fact that shear has lessen by 5 knots over the last 24 hours...Also the shear appears to be favable/super favable. All the way to the leeward islands south of 18 north at this moment. The Gfs shows this system making it near the leeward with an 72 to 84 hours. In which case a TUTT low starts forming over the central/eastern caribbean by 84 hours. Which sould increase the shear over the area of the northeastern Caribbean. But on the other hand the ship models show this becoming a 67 knot hurricane. While the Gfdl shows it moving through the islands as a 85 knot hurricane. A west-northwest track both models show. Then turns it into a cat4 hurricane at around 18.5/85.5...In which case is way to extream....
The fact that the water is around 84 to 86 degrees. In the fact that the northeastern caribbean waters are around 85 to 88 degrees. I expect this to hold its own if not get even stronger. The Cmc also shows 72 to 84 hour time frame for the hit on the leewards. It is making it stronger. In which case might be because it doe's not develop the TUTT like the GFS/GFDL doe's. In which case the CMC has proven to be a ok model. The Outlayer is the ECMWF which brings it through at its 12z run the suothern Caribbean.
One factor that might slow down the system is a large area of dry air from 50 to 60 west. In which case could stop development intill it makes it through this area. That is the main thing against the developed of this system. In which case should take another 24 hours to reach. The latest satellite shows that the system has become much better oreganized. Which a deep area of convection form right over the LLC. The system is becoming tighter. With perfect outflow forming over all quads. The first signs of rainbands have also started to form. Which means that this system is likely close to tropical storm.
So a landfall on the leewards between 84 to 86 hours.
A second landfall an Purto rico by 108 hours...
To note I only for the next 48 to 60 hours forecast a slow upswing. Mostly because of the dry air...
Winds
0 35 mph
12 40 mph tropical storm
24 40 mph
36 45 mph Dry air!!!
48 45 mph
60 55 mph
72 60 mph
84 70 mph making landfall over the leewards
96 75 mph hurricane
108 80 mph Landfall
120 60 mph
Forecaster Matthew
This is a unoffical forecast please see the nhc for offical information.
Unoffical forecast 2# On tropcial depression 5#
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