NHC comments on 2005 model performance

[dhweather]

From the 11AM Td#5 discussion

IT IS PERHAPS OF INTEREST TO NOTE THAT THE NOGAPS...WHICH HAD
ONLY A SO-SO YEAR LAST YEAR...IS CURRENTLY THE BEST PERFORMING
ATLANTIC TRACK MODEL SO FAR IN 2005...AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH WON HANDS DOWN LAST YEAR...IS
STRUGGLING A BIT.


So that answers the "what model is performing best" question.

With that said, I wonder how many additional web hits NOGAPS gets now
that the NHC has stated it is performing best so far.

[gkrangers]

You can also expect the NOGAPS to start doing cocaine, now that the NHC says its the best. It can't be trusted anymore...

[dhweather]

The "most improved model" award, so far, has to go to A98E.

[cinlfla]

IT IS PERHAPS OF INTEREST TO NOTE THAT THE NOGAPS...WHICH HAD
ONLY A SO-SO YEAR LAST YEAR...IS CURRENTLY THE BEST PERFORMING
ATLANTIC TRACK MODEL SO FAR IN 2005...AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH WON HANDS DOWN LAST YEAR...IS
STRUGGLING A BIT.

Which model do you think did the best with Dennis in the long term?

[HurryKane]

The "most improved model" award, so far, has to go to A98E.

Let's give UKMET the Miss Congeniality award for scaring New Orleans for days.

[dhweather]

IT IS PERHAPS OF INTEREST TO NOTE THAT THE NOGAPS...WHICH HAD
ONLY A SO-SO YEAR LAST YEAR...IS CURRENTLY THE BEST PERFORMING
ATLANTIC TRACK MODEL SO FAR IN 2005...AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH WON HANDS DOWN LAST YEAR...IS
STRUGGLING A BIT.

Which model do you think did the best with Dennis in the long term?

NOGAPS and UKMET. UKMET stuck with the SE LA solution consistantly,
but moved east to Mobile late. Nogaps moved around a little more, but
was very close on the path of Dennis.

[duris]

The "most improved model" award, so far, has to go to A98E.

Let's give UKMET the Miss Congeniality award for scaring New Orleans for days.

Fortunately, UKMET spent a little too much time in the French Quarter. We caught it in a back alley and sent it south, but it staggered east. It won't be bothering us again. The rest of you models, take note. Your kind ain't welcome here.

[HurryKane]

The "most improved model" award, so far, has to go to A98E.

Let's give UKMET the Miss Congeniality award for scaring New Orleans for days.

Fortunately, UKMET spent a little too much time in the French Quarter. We caught it in a back alley and sent it south, but it staggered east. It won't be bothering us again. The rest of you models, take note. Your kind ain't welcome here.

Hee hee. She had one too many Hand Grenades, huh? Flippin' tourist.

[x-y-no]

IT IS PERHAPS OF INTEREST TO NOTE THAT THE NOGAPS...WHICH HAD
ONLY A SO-SO YEAR LAST YEAR...IS CURRENTLY THE BEST PERFORMING
ATLANTIC TRACK MODEL SO FAR IN 2005...AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH WON HANDS DOWN LAST YEAR...IS
STRUGGLING A BIT.

Which model do you think did the best with Dennis in the long term?

NOGAPS and UKMET. UKMET stuck with the SE LA solution consistantly,
but moved east to Mobile late. Nogaps moved around a little more, but
was very close on the path of Dennis.

Yes. UKMET had a leftward bias, but it was very nicely consistant, and did well with the synoptics. There's a lot to be said for consistancy, even with significant bias, if the nature of that bias can be understood and compensated for.

The GFS was a mixed bag - it actually did quite well early on, but got really bad as Dennis intensified, and then did pretty well again once he turned the corner into the Gulf. Looks like last year's ridge problem has not been solved, but maybe has been improved on for weaker systems.

I'd like to see the NOGAPS repeat this performance at least once more before I'm sold on it.

Jan

[Roxy]

Well based on the statements above from NHC...then the gulf should be worried since NOGAPS keeps this storm well south.

[EDR1222]

Seemed like the GFS and GFDL performed well once Dennis got into the gulf. I guess that would be considered short term though.

[Windy]

Well based on the statements above from NHC...then the gulf should be worried since NOGAPS keeps this storm well south.

I kinda hope NOGAPS pans out. I'd rather see the cane hit the states than Hati. When storms hit Hati, thousands die. We tend to build our houses better here.