Again 2.5 T number

[cycloneye]

11/1745 UTC 10.7N 45.3W T2.5/2.5 05 -- Atlantic Ocean


11/2345 UTC 10.8N 46.5W T2.5/2.5 05 -- Atlantic Ocean


This afternoon SSD Dvorak had it the same T number however no upgrade but will this time the upgrade will come?

[Swimdude]

I certainly hope they upgrade it. People around here are getting antsy.

EDIT:

It IS looking better, after all:

[wxman57]

It's hard to justify an upgrade when the center cannot even be located. If we're lucky, it'll dissipate like last year's "E" storm. I wouldn't mind finally getting a day off, as I just finished my 15th hurricane shift.

[texasheat]

i doubt it will

[Duffy]

as i said in another Threat, for some reason, NHC is conservitive with this stuff at times and its frustrating

[StormWarning1]

Still just as dis-organized as this afternoon. No tropical storm tonight

[wxwatcher91]

ya as I said in another thread, with all the hype of Dennis and the active storm season, I think we and even the NHC have over-estimated this...

I very very much doubt it will die or anything... it will definitely become a TS ...maaaaybe a hurricane

seriously, as soon as we spotted a tropical wave here, we all went crazy thinking of another major hurricane or something... as it is, it's still a TD after 4 advisories... and probably the 5th one with it a TD will be tonight

[gkrangers]

How did the NHC overestimate it? Its clearly a depression. Thats what they have maintained it as.

[wxwatcher91]

I mean in the forecasts

[clfenwi]

I mean in the forecasts

Hard to already be saying that they were over on the forecasts as the first forecast kept it under TS until 0Z this evening. Now if we get to 12Z tomorrow and it's still a TD then you can say that...

Now the forecast that followed, you can make a more substantive arugment for it was a bit more agressive than the previous one, but still, as the 5 PM discussion noted, SAB and AFWA said 40 knots, which would verify the NHC forecast from 5 AM this morning...

SLIGHTLY LATER: 00Z models were initialized with a 35 knot storm... looks like the first forecast is right on time....

[MWatkins]

TAFB is on board with a new t-number at 2.5 at 23:45Z. Now all 3 agencies are up to t2.5...that plus the model header at tropical storm 5 are pretty good indicators that the name Emily will be handed out at 11PM.

Also...reading the info from ATCF Stacy Stewart....who is always doing his homework...fixed a tight llc slightly to the north of satellite estimates and a mid center a bit south of there.

Betcha he's writing the 11pm tonight.

MW

[gkrangers]

TAFB is on board with a new t-number at 2.5 at 23:45Z. Now all 3 agencies are up to t2.5...that plus the model header at tropical storm 5 are pretty good indicators that the name Emily will be handed out at 11PM.

Also...reading the info from ATCF Stacy Stewart....who is always doing his homework...fixed a tight llc slightly to the north of satellite estimates and a mid center a bit south of there.

Betcha he's writing the 11pm tonight.

MW

I pull the T numbers from here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Where would I find what the different agencies think?

Also...whats the ATCF?

And Stewart is the man..

[MWatkins]

TAFB is on board with a new t-number at 2.5 at 23:45Z. Now all 3 agencies are up to t2.5...that plus the model header at tropical storm 5 are pretty good indicators that the name Emily will be handed out at 11PM.

Also...reading the info from ATCF Stacy Stewart....who is always doing his homework...fixed a tight llc slightly to the north of satellite estimates and a mid center a bit south of there.

Betcha he's writing the 11pm tonight.

MW

I pull the T numbers from here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Where would I find what the different agencies think?

Also...whats the ATCF?

And Stewart is the man..

ATCF...hmmm....I made a deal with someone (who showed me where it was)....a couple of years ago...not to give out exactly how to get to it. If he is still reading here and gives me the OK...or if someone else wants to post how to get there...I guess that would be OK.

Back then it wasn't on the NHC home webpage...but it is now...you have to hunt for it...then be able to decode it (it's not that hard).

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

It contains some raw data files that have all of this data in it.

MW

[Huckster]

Does this have anything to do with the ATCF you're talking about?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/atcfwb/index1.html