AFD NWS San Juan

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1150 PM AST MON JUL 11 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM EMILY...

.UPDATE...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHILE
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS VERY CLOSE TO THE
SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE 00Z SOUNDING CAME IN HUMID AND
UNSTABLE AT LOW TO MID LEVELS WITH 2.21 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER AND
LI OF 4.0. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL THROUGH THAT WAS ENHANCING THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST...ALLOWING A RELATIVELY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS MOVING
IN OVERNIGHT. SO...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO THE WEATHER GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE ACTUAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.

AT 11 PM...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE BECAME THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM
OF THE SEASON...NAMED EMILY. THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST
TRACK AND GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS STORM MOVING OVER OR JUST SOUTH
OF PUERTO RICO LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS ARE
URGED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE DEVELOPMENT AND FUTURE TRACK OF EMILY
THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

SINCE 1900...SEVEN TROPICAL CYCLONES CROSSED OR PASSED NEAR PUERTO
RICO. FOUR OF THEM AFFECTED THE ISLAND AROUND MID JULY. THE LAST ONE
WAS HURRICANE BERTHA IN 1996...THAT PASSED JUST NORTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON JULY 8 AND 9./GR


I really hope this does not verify.Send prayers folks to me as I will need them in the next few days.

[gatorcane]

Luis it's not looking good for Puerto Rico.

[Scorpion]

It probably wont be very strong only Cat 1 at most if it hits PR.

[Brent]

It's not looking good... especially since it's only about 66-72 hours away now. NHC has been pretty accurate this year and the models are tightly clustered. Best hope would be passing north with a weak south side.

[Brent]

It probably wont be very strong only Cat 1 at most if it hits PR.

Jeanne was only a strong TS and look at the problems it caused.

[gatorcane]

It's not looking good... especially since it's only about 66-72 hours away now. NHC has been pretty accurate this year and the models are tightly clustered. Best hope would be passing north with a weak south side.

They have been accurate. If you think about it, their first 5 day cone for Dennis that showed FL in the path wasn't off that much. It passed on the left side of the initial guidance but for being thousands of miles away that is very good.

[jkt21787]

Saying it will "only" be a strong cat 1 shouldn't help cycloneye very much. They have serious problems with those and sometimes tropical storms. Lets hope it doesn't become a major still.

Luis, will be praying for you. Send more updates as available.

[Scorpion]

PR took Georges fairly well if I remember.

[Brent]

What would be scary if I lived in the islands or Puerto Rico would be that the NHC is usually too low on intensity... there is no land impediment before PR, waters are warm, shear is low, I see no reason why it will not exceed the NHC forecast. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see a Cat 2 or Cat 3 as it nears PR.

[Ola]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1150 PM AST MON JUL 11 2005


SINCE 1900...SEVEN TROPICAL CYCLONES CROSSED OR PASSED NEAR PUERTO
RICO. FOUR OF THEM AFFECTED THE ISLAND AROUND MID JULY. THE LAST ONE
WAS HURRICANE BERTHA IN 1996...THAT PASSED JUST NORTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON JULY 8 AND 9./GR


I really hope this does not verify.Send prayers folks to me as I will need them in the next few days.

Cyc, they mistyped that. They meant "since 1900... seven TC... in mid July. Not that four were in July but all seven. Has tobe wrong since 1998 was Geroges, and obviously Berthat was not the last one, even Jeanne was last year.

[Radar]

Luis,

I will keep you in my prayers and hope that Emily does not track too close to PR....