Emily looking worse on satellite...

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pcolaguy

Emily looking worse on satellite...

#1 Postby pcolaguy » Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:56 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Last few frames... convection dying out...

But, does it look like it is trying to wrap on the right side of it?
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#2 Postby feederband » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:19 pm

Looks to me that its just reorganizing itself weak ts do that..
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#3 Postby dwg71 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:22 pm

or a sign of it dissapating.. the further south it stays the better for US. I just want this one to go away.
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#4 Postby wx247 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:23 pm

Visible shot seems to show some better outflow and organization within the last couple of shots even though we have lost the deepest thunderstorms. Pressure at NRL is now up to 1001... not a huge change mind you, but is up a mb. It will be interesting to see what the afternoon holds.
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#5 Postby Scorpion » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:23 pm

I agree. I just never had a feeling this storm would amount to much. Maybe a TS/Cat 1 at most. Something like Chantal. Except its going to Texas instead of Mexico.
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#6 Postby Sanibel » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:44 pm

This weakening trend, while possibly slamming into the South American airmass, could very easily result in destruction of the center and opening into a wave.

This would make the wave behind it more likely to take over, but that is never a guarantee either. See how difficult these systems are to predict!
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#7 Postby x-y-no » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:45 pm

This isn't going away. I expect strengthening to start once she passes west of about 55w or so.

Jan
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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:48 pm

wx247 wrote:Visible shot seems to show some better outflow and organization within the last couple of shots even though we have lost the deepest thunderstorms. Pressure at NRL is now up to 1001... not a huge change mind you, but is up a mb. It will be interesting to see what the afternoon holds.


It has been always 1001 mb.

My guess is that she is moving to fast to keep up with organization.
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#9 Postby Sanibel » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:49 pm

This is still July and the Caribbean Zone is still ahead of it. Storms weakening while entering the Caribbean graveyard have a much worse chance than intensifying ones...
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#10 Postby Gulf Stream » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:52 pm

dwg71 wrote:or a sign of it dissapating.. the further south it stays the better for US. I just want this one to go away.


Please forgive a newbie question.....I have seen this referred to in a couple of places here. What makes the "area further South" so disruptive to a system's development?

....BTW, finally registered here after lurking and learning from you guys for the past 10 months or so (found this site during Ivan).
Ya'lls info has been very helpful to me here at work, as I have to "work thru" these storms here in the Mobile area.
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#11 Postby wx247 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:53 pm

Sanibel wrote:This is still July and the Caribbean Zone is still ahead of it. Storms weakening while entering the Caribbean graveyard have a much worse chance than intensifying ones...


I don't see this dying.
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#12 Postby pcolaguy » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:53 pm

Sanibel wrote:This is still July and the Caribbean Zone is still ahead of it. Storms weakening while entering the Caribbean graveyard have a much worse chance than intensifying ones...


More like Caribbean oasis, just ask Dennis.
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#13 Postby Sanibel » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:57 pm

Ask Earl about that oasis. Because one storm beats climatology doesn't mean the next one will. I'm not saying this will definitely break down, but it is currently doing what such storms do.



July storms hugging the coast of South America sometimes get impacted by land-type weather features. Sometimes "heat Lows" blow turbulence over the storm causing it to weaken...
Last edited by Sanibel on Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#14 Postby Brent » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:58 pm

x-y-no wrote:This isn't going away. I expect strengthening to start once she passes west of about 55w or so.

Jan


Agreed. The fact that we have a named storm so far east in Mid-July is a feat in itself. Conditions will only become more favorable and waters warmer farther west.
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#15 Postby wx247 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:00 pm

Yes... dry air can get sucked into the system from South America. I think that is a bigger concern at this point for the death of the system rather than its current state. Just looks to be getting better organized to me.
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#16 Postby dwg71 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:01 pm

Im not an expert, but it looks to me on the WV loop of a storm that is weaking at a pretty good rate.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#17 Postby Sanibel » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:03 pm

The culprit could also be from behind. The High that is currently pushing Emily south of west could contain SAL inhibition. With the graveyard ahead the prognosis is tenuous...
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#18 Postby Sanibel » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:17 pm

Another possibility is a center shift north...
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#19 Postby deltadog03 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:19 pm

NHC made mention that this thing is in some really dry air yesterday...I have a feeling this may be why its still at TS...however, they did say it will be coming into a more favorable enviroment for strgthn....i would tend to agree..
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#20 Postby dwg71 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:19 pm

Sanibel wrote:Another possibility is a center shift north...


IMO, i dont see anything to suggest that.
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