00Z Global Model Summary

[clfenwi]

Starting with the model least affected by the lack of a northwest turn and the south of west course this evening, NOGAPS.... Its forecast track is nearly identical to the 12Z run and puts Emily squarely into the Yucatan beteween 132 and 144 hours.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2005071300

As the ECMWF is not posted yet, I'll move on to the UKMET...its track is a bit west of the previous one and has Emily brushing the tip of the Yucatan at 120 hours and heading towards the Rio Grande at 144 hours.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

The right outlier of the 12Z run continues to be so this run... CMC runs Emily along the north coast of Jamaica between 72 and 84 hours...across the western tip of Cuba at 108 hours and towards south Texas at 144 hours...

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... hdd_50.gif

The GFS had the novel idea of actually initializing something that remotely resembled Emily this time... however still kills off the closed low quickly... it looks to bring the remnant to southern Yucatan / Belize in 120 hours or so...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[lencast]

Thank you so much for this great display of the models. I keep searching for them and only find them sporadically.

Live in NOLA and have been stressed to the max with all the tropical activity...

[Hurricaneman]

Nice Graphics