Emily BOMBING?!

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AnthonyC
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Emily BOMBING?!

#1 Postby AnthonyC » Wed Jul 13, 2005 9:59 pm

Dude, this storm has really gotten its act together the past six hours...completely different looking storm compared to this morning. Will Emily continue to bomb? I say she's a category 5 hurricane within two days...and impacts the US as a category 2.

Anthony
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#2 Postby yoda » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:00 pm

I don't think so... :wink:
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#3 Postby skysummit » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:00 pm

Wow...forecasting a cat 5? Hmmm....nah...
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Scorpion

#4 Postby Scorpion » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:01 pm

Its not gonna impact the US, looks like its going to Mexico. Also, a Cat 5 isnt impossible. Dennis was certainly almost there.
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#5 Postby skysummit » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:01 pm

Scorpion wrote:Its not gonna impact the US, looks like its going to Mexico. Also, a Cat 5 isnt impossible. Dennis was certainly almost there.


I wouldn't say that just yet.
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#6 Postby djtil » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:01 pm

ill go with cat 2 into the yucatan and then tropical storm into mexico...at least 200 miles south of brownsville.
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#7 Postby abajan » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:02 pm

I don't think so either but this is such a crazy season that I'm not ruling anything out! :lol:
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#8 Postby Swimdude » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:02 pm

I'm not wanting to agree with the possibility of a Cat. 5... But then again, look how creepishly close Dennis got...
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#9 Postby rtd2 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:04 pm

Scorpion wrote:Its not gonna impact the US, looks like its going to Mexico. Also, a Cat 5 isnt impossible. Dennis was certainly almost there.


Your are correct on the cat 5 ...remember so far this year we have seen some :INSANE" strengthning and it could happen...as far as the NON us call I disagree like in the last post I just made 7/10 people was starting to doubt thr NHC and thought it would go into SA and thats not going to happen so I wouldnt rule out Texas just yet!
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#10 Postby Sanibel » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:11 pm

1003 60mph

992 92mph


Bombing? Yes.
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Re: Emily BOMBING?!

#11 Postby SacrydDreamz » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:17 pm

AnthonyC wrote:Dude, this storm has really gotten its act together the past six hours...completely different looking storm compared to this morning. Will Emily continue to bomb? I say she's a category 5 hurricane within two days...and impacts the US as a category 2.

Anthony


What is this based on? :?:
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#12 Postby Javlin » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:17 pm

Yea rtd2 I was one of those about 6:00am this morning into SA she goes.Amazing what a little strengthing will do for movement and steering currents.
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#13 Postby AnthonyC » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:17 pm

Pure speculation...and some past knowledge of hurricane seasons.

Anthony
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#14 Postby Ixolib » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:18 pm

rtd2 wrote:
Scorpion wrote:Its not gonna impact the US, looks like its going to Mexico. Also, a Cat 5 isnt impossible. Dennis was certainly almost there.


Your are correct on the cat 5 ...remember so far this year we have seen some :INSANE" strengthning and it could happen...as far as the NON us call I disagree like in the last post I just made 7/10 people was starting to doubt thr NHC and thought it would go into SA and thats not going to happen so I wouldnt rule out Texas just yet!


Well, like any "typical" cane, won't she try to track poleward? And if that's the case, doesn't it just depend on how far south and west (and how strong) the ridge pushes in? Basically, won't Emmy just ride the periphery wherever the ridge stops? The further in, the further west and vice versa...
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#15 Postby SacrydDreamz » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:18 pm

AnthonyC wrote:Pure speculation...and some past knowledge of hurricane seasons.

Anthony


ok, essentially a guess...
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#16 Postby The Big Dog » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:19 pm

I don't know about this. This has been a strange day. Hurricane warning, drop the warning, raise the warning? It's gonna be a Cat 3, then it's not expected to strengthen until it gets past the islands, now it explodes? Flight level winds support 63 kts, but let's go for broke anyway? And 992 mb seems awfully high for 90 mph.

Well, I'm not calling this a Cat 5 just because the GFDL has never met a blob it didn't like. Kinda like most of the people here.
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gkrangers

#17 Postby gkrangers » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:21 pm

A dropsonde measured 102kt winds at approximately 500 feet off the surface. This was lowered to 80kt at the surface. Thats what the intensity is based off of.
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#18 Postby The Big Dog » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:27 pm

gkrangers wrote:A dropsonde measured 102kt winds at approximately 500 feet off the surface. This was lowered to 80kt at the surface. Thats what the intensity is based off of.

Yeah, I caught that -- but 30 mph and 11 mb in two hours? I'm seriously wondering if they just plain made a mistake somewhere. Or if they've been making them all day. There seems to be no consistency from one round to the next. Has Emily got everyone fooled?
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texasheat

#19 Postby texasheat » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:27 pm

maybe she is a man.. i knew it.. fooled me :lol:
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gkrangers

#20 Postby gkrangers » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:29 pm

The Big Dog wrote:
gkrangers wrote:A dropsonde measured 102kt winds at approximately 500 feet off the surface. This was lowered to 80kt at the surface. Thats what the intensity is based off of.

Yeah, I caught that -- but 30 mph and 11 mb in two hours? I'm seriously wondering if they just plain made a mistake somewhere. Or if they've been making them all day. There seems to be no consistency from one round to the next. Has Emily got everyone fooled?
At 8PM they had no obs, no recon, no nothing to go off of. They are blind obs wise out there. You have to look at it more like an 11mb drop since the last recon...
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