00z Global Models - Emily

[gkrangers]

00z NOGAPS is partially in..108 hours has Emily inland on the southern coast of the Yucatan. Its a very slight southern shift so far. The 12Z NOGAPS turned it west once it remerged and plowed it into the Mexican coastline. Looks like the 00z does the same thing...barely even reemerges into the BOC.

So..00z NOGAPS says Mexico, not even close to TX.

[MWatkins]

00z NOGAPS is partially in..108 hours has Emily inland on the southern coast of the Yucatan. Its a very slight southern shift so far. The 12Z NOGAPS turned it west once it remerged and plowed it into the Mexican coastline. Waiting to see if the 00z takes it into the gulf or makes the abrupt left turn.

Yep. Looks like good-old NOGAPS is even further south than before...the GFS is a bit north but much faster than the 12Z guidance.

Well I sure feel better about Emily getting north anytime soon.

Only minor concern...in terms of track...is the GFS and NOGAPS models were much weaker with Emily in the mid-range than they were at 12Z and I wonder if this has any bearing on the track projections.

MW

[Hurricaneman]

It might

[gkrangers]

00z NOGAPS is partially in..108 hours has Emily inland on the southern coast of the Yucatan. Its a very slight southern shift so far. The 12Z NOGAPS turned it west once it remerged and plowed it into the Mexican coastline. Waiting to see if the 00z takes it into the gulf or makes the abrupt left turn.

Yep. Looks like good-old NOGAPS is even further south than before...the GFS is a bit north but much faster than the 12Z guidance.

Well I sure feel better about Emily getting north anytime soon.

Only minor concern...in terms of track...is the GFS and NOGAPS models were much weaker with Emily in the mid-range than they were at 12Z and I wonder if this has any bearing on the track projections.

MW

I'm waiting to see if the UKMET takes it up the east coast of the US this run....

00z CMC takes it into the central Yucatan and then into the extreme SW gulf...

[Swimdude]

GFS shows a slight track to the NW after 120HR.

[gkrangers]

Can you take that graphic out of this thread please? The GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET plot are all old.

[MWatkins]

00z NOGAPS is partially in..108 hours has Emily inland on the southern coast of the Yucatan. Its a very slight southern shift so far. The 12Z NOGAPS turned it west once it remerged and plowed it into the Mexican coastline. Waiting to see if the 00z takes it into the gulf or makes the abrupt left turn.

Yep. Looks like good-old NOGAPS is even further south than before...the GFS is a bit north but much faster than the 12Z guidance.

Well I sure feel better about Emily getting north anytime soon.

Only minor concern...in terms of track...is the GFS and NOGAPS models were much weaker with Emily in the mid-range than they were at 12Z and I wonder if this has any bearing on the track projections.

MW

I'm waiting to see if the UKMET takes it up the east coast of the US this run....

00z CMC takes it into the central Yucatan and then into the extreme SW gulf...

Predictibly...the CMC cant even seem to hold on to a closed low at 1000MB. Perhaps the model's desire to create a good forecast has faded now that the hockey lockout has ended.

MW

[gkrangers]

00z NOGAPS is partially in..108 hours has Emily inland on the southern coast of the Yucatan. Its a very slight southern shift so far. The 12Z NOGAPS turned it west once it remerged and plowed it into the Mexican coastline. Waiting to see if the 00z takes it into the gulf or makes the abrupt left turn.

Yep. Looks like good-old NOGAPS is even further south than before...the GFS is a bit north but much faster than the 12Z guidance.

Well I sure feel better about Emily getting north anytime soon.

Only minor concern...in terms of track...is the GFS and NOGAPS models were much weaker with Emily in the mid-range than they were at 12Z and I wonder if this has any bearing on the track projections.

MW

I'm waiting to see if the UKMET takes it up the east coast of the US this run....

00z CMC takes it into the central Yucatan and then into the extreme SW gulf...

Predictibly...the CMC cant even seem to hold on to a closed low at 1000MB. Perhaps the model's desire to create a good forecast has faded now that the hockey lockout has ended.

MW

Well..remember last week with Dennis? Lockout was in full force and it still sucked.

UKMET...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

Jamaica - Cayman Islands - Yucatan Channel - Brownsville, TX

[MWatkins]

Looks like the UKIE is back in the pack with a track N of the other models but generally right in the fold:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

Looking more and more like Emily will be an exclusive Spanish-speaker.

MW

[Hurricaneman]

The UKMet is not out to lunch anymore

[clfenwi]

Here's my summary...

NOGAPS...Very similar to previous runs overall... at 84 hours or so resembles prev 00Z run more than 12Z run... landfall squarely in the Yucatan at 120 h...moves into BOC ... W/WNW track at 144 h towards Mexico

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2005071400

GFS... back to its old self... doesn't initialize a closed isobar low...doesn't have one the whole way across the Carib...if you look at the track without regards to timing it looks similar to 12Z run, however, it is much quicker in the mid-term...inverted trough crosses Yucatan at 90-96h... then creeeeps across BOC ...and kinds of leaves it there... just off of Mexico...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

CMC...manages to not lose the low this time...comes up with a track bearing no resemblence to anything it has offered to date with Emily... SW corner of Jamaica at 60 h..moves west into the Yucatan between 84 and 90 h...

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 133_50.gif and animations on moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs

UKMET... in near-mid term resembles last night's 00Z run more than this morning's 12Z... across Jamaica 54-60 h... western tip of Cuba at 84 hours... wnw to landfall just north of Rio Grande at 144 h...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[clfenwi]

ECMWF... further south than previous runs... landfall in Belize b/t 96 and 120 hours...