Chances of New Orleans getting a Direct Hit??

gk1 · #1 Postby **gk1** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 8:50 am

Most local mets feel that NO will get lucky again with no affects from this storm. Seems early, but looks like they will be right.

jax · #2 Postby **jax** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 8:51 am

1.43% JMHO

Website · #3 Postby **Brent** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 8:54 am

From this storm??? Very very very small.

#4 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 8:59 am

Slim now but things can ALWAYS change.

canegrl04 · #5 Postby **canegrl04** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:04 am

I really don't see Emily striking any farther North than Corpus Christi

#6 Postby **dhweather** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:07 am

I'm in the 1% category, it appears the the ridge is holding rather strong.

Interesting that the MM5 takes Emily to the TX/LA line

#7 Postby **Steve** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:15 am

<8-10%

#8 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:19 am

dhweather wrote:I'm in the 1% category, it appears the the ridge is holding rather strong.

Interesting that the MM5 takes Emily to the TX/LA line

I agree it is VERY interesting.

x-y-no · #9 Postby **x-y-no** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:22 am

This is as sure a thing as anything can ever be with hurricanes.

Jan

Agua · #10 Postby **Agua** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:28 am

jax wrote:1.43% JMHO

That might be overly generous, even.

cajungal · #11 Postby **cajungal** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:28 am

Extremely low chance. The ridge would have to break down completly. The furthest I see it going as of now is Lake Charles, LA.

jax · #12 Postby **jax** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:28 am

x-y-no wrote:This is as sure a thing as anything can ever be with hurricanes.

Jan

i would't go THAT far now....

#13 Postby **Lowpressure** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:31 am

Not much chance at this point, but remember last week many models pinned LA as impact with Dennis and were over 150 miles wrong. Models are tightly clustered, lower TX seems a better bet, but pay attention. It looks like the only thing at this point to agree upon is that for a change, Florida gets to watch one in stead of prepare for impact.

x-y-no · #14 Postby **x-y-no** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:32 am

jax wrote:
x-y-no wrote:This is as sure a thing as anything can ever be with hurricanes.

Jan

i would't go THAT far now....

OK ... how about "it's as sure as that we'll never have two Cat 4 hurricanes before July is halfway over" ...

oh ... wait a minute ... :lol:

jax · #15 Postby **jax** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:37 am

x-y-no wrote:
jax wrote:
x-y-no wrote:This is as sure a thing as anything can ever be with hurricanes.

Jan

i would't go THAT far now....

OK ... how about "it's as sure as that we'll never have two Cat 4 hurricanes before July is halfway over" ...

oh ... wait a minute ...

Kennethb · #16 Postby **Kennethb** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:52 am

I don't think we can write Emily off yet. Its only July and the tropical models are primed for August and September. While I feel fairly confident on the track to Mexio/Texas area, The ULL over Texas, plus other features on the water vapor seem to say hmmmm.

Troughs and ULLs in the summer seem to like to take their time and not move quite as fast as the models would like. Will be another busy weekend.

#17 Postby **micktooth** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:58 am

I think we have a better chance of the Saints winning the Super Bowl! :jump:

They both can happen, but highly unlikely.

Website · #18 Postby **Brent** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 9:59 am

micktooth wrote:I think we have a better chance of the Saints winning the Super Bowl!
They both can happen, but highly unlikely.

#19 Postby **Steve** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 11:00 am

Do not bag on the Saints.

Steve

#20 Postby **dhweather** » Fri Jul 15, 2005 11:02 am

Steve wrote:Do not bag on the Saints.

Steve

Steve - They have tortured my soul for 37 years. The sad part is I keep coming back for more each season.

David

Chances of New Orleans getting a Direct Hit??

Chances of New Orleans getting a Direct Hit??

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