Once again... Cat. 5?

[Swimdude]

Last night, I asked the same question. I believe we had 52% say 'yes', 48% say 'no', with a total of near 100 votes.

SO! I ask the same question again tonight, under different circumstances. It seems the EWRC is nearly complete, and Emily is under more favorable conditions to strengthen. The 2 a.m. advisory states that the winds are "AT LEAST 135 mph."

So here it is again. Cat. 5?

Or not?

[mobilebay]

This system has the potential to become a Cat 5 Hurricane in the next day or so as it moves West Northwest over the Caribbean Sea...

mobilebay

This is not an official statement or forecast.

[Thunder44]

I say no because I think it is likely to fluctate in intensity between Cat 2 and Cat 4 over before it gets to the Yucatan. But it wouldn't suprise me if it reached Cat 5 at one point.

[Swimdude]

I say no because I think it is likely to fluctate in intensity between Cat 2 and Cat 4 over before it gets to the Yucatan. But it wouldn't suprise me if it reached Cat 5 at one point.

That would be a "yes" vote, actually.

[Normandy]

No.

[Thunder44]

I say no because I think it is likely to fluctate in intensity between Cat 2 and Cat 4 over before it gets to the Yucatan. But it wouldn't suprise me if it reached Cat 5 at one point.

That would be a "yes" vote, actually.

How so? Cause I say I won't be suprised if reached Cat 5?

[Swimdude]

Right... Reaching cat. 5, at all, would be a 'yes' answer.

[Pebbles]

I'm gonna stay with what I said last night and think emily will get cat 5 (if not she'll make a good run for it) her eye has popped even bigger and she's taking a long hot bath. She's gonna show us how a woman should never be underestimated at surprising others.

OK so I give em personalities... but they sure do seem to have em sometimes!

[Hurricane Cheese]

Why not? As long as she can fight off any shear she should be on her way to struting her stuff!

[EDR1222]

In another thread I said I didn't think she would make it, I could end up eating some crow however!

[baw_es]

I believe I read on this forum a week or so ago that Hurricane Dennis became the strongest hurricane on record in the month of July at 150mph. As of this morning Emily is currently at 145mph. If Emily has a chance at cat 5 that sure was a short run for a record, 150 years to make a week to fall.

[dhweather]

Based on her BRILLIANT rebound, I would have voted yes anyway.
Seeing the winds at 700MB of 170MPH (153 at the surface) - she's
dangerously close. We may very well have one at the next advisory,
plenty of warm water ahead.

[dhweather]

In another thread I said I didn't think she would make it, I could end up eating some crow however!

I said the same - after the shear and major reorganization yesterday,
I thought she would do get to get back to cat 4.

Oh well, crow is tasty!

[cccmachine]

Has there ever been a 5 in July?

[Swimdude]

Has there ever been a 5 in July?

Nope. Dennis was the strongest hurricane ever recorded in July... Max winds - 150 mph.

[Lowpressure]

May be a cat 5 in the next 6 hours with recon there to confirm.

[cccmachine]

Swim,I see you put a "was" instead of an "is" in your post.Giving up on Dennis already?Man just got put in the record books too.

[Normandy]

Man I might need some crow.

[MGC]

I voted no the other day. But, since I was wrong concerning the shear ahead of Em and she is knocking on the door of Cat 5, I'd say the chances are good that she will make it. Still has a lot of warm water to transverse....MGC

[Innotech]

I say yes. extremely warm caribbean SSTs ahead, great outflow, no land interaction, active ERC's, falling pressures, 150 mph winds with possible reports higher...I htink she will hit Cat 5 for at least a short duration.