New Update: Emily Winds 150mph Pressure 940mb

Thunder44 · #1 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:52 am

ZCZC MIATCUAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1145 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF EMILY HAS FALLEN TO 940 MB AND THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 150 MPH.

FORECASTER BEVEN

#2 Postby **Pebbles** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:54 am

OK... any bets on when they will update us with 155mph winds? :eek:

Emily you can cut it out now! Make me eat crow... don't reach cat 5 girl!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #3 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:55 am

Its heading for cat5...I don't know if it can make it with out a EWRC going on before then.

Innotech · #4 Postby **Innotech** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:55 am

I dunno, she appears to be losing convection rapidly. This may be her peak.

#5 Postby **Stephanie** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:56 am

God help anyone in her path! :eek:

cajungal · #6 Postby **cajungal** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:56 am

ohiostorm · #7 Postby **ohiostorm** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:00 am

good lord.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #8 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:06 am

There was a poll a few weeks ago about would another storm this year beat Dennis. I think this one just tied it. In maybe even beat it.

#9 Postby **micktooth** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:08 am

I was on Grand Cayman a few months ago and another hit will totally devistate the island.As it is, almost everything was damaged. :cry:

Radar · #10 Postby **Radar** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:10 am

Let's hope this is her peak and she will start to diminish from here on out. I love to track hurricanes but I hate to see the death and destruction they leave behind and Emily surely is a Black Widow of a Cane! :cry:

#11 Postby **Stephanie** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:11 am

Radar wrote:Let's hope this is her peak and she will start to diminish from here on out. I love to track hurricanes but I hate to see the death and destruction they leave behind and Emily surely is a Black Widow of a Cane!

That's how all of us weather weenies feel!

#12 Postby **Pebbles** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:13 am

Stephanie wrote:
Radar wrote:Let's hope this is her peak and she will start to diminish from here on out. I love to track hurricanes but I hate to see the death and destruction they leave behind and Emily surely is a Black Widow of a Cane!

That's how all of us weather weenies feel!

DITTO!

Thunder44 · #13 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:15 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:There was a poll a few weeks ago about would another storm this year beat Dennis. I think this one just tied it. In maybe even beat it.

Dennis peaked at 150mph winds before it struck Cuba, but had pressure as low as 930mb in the GOM. So Dennis is still technically stronger.

JTD · #14 Postby **JTD** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:27 am

I have a strong instinctual feeling that Emily will give Gilbert and Mitch a run for their money in terms of wind speed if not pressure (hopefully pressure too-before it hits land of course)

Imagine if a July 16th storm becomes the strongest Atlantic Hurricane of all time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ohiostorm · #15 Postby **ohiostorm** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:41 am

I dont think we need that at all. Especially when its heading for land.

JTD · #16 Postby **JTD** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:48 am

That's why I said I hope it peaks before it hits land, just to clarify, i.e., it gets really strong now in the open ocean and then weakens dramatically. I don't think there's anything wrong with wanting to see a cat 5 in the open ocean. And, again, just to emphasize, I want to see it weaken or even better fall apart before it hits land.

On the last few satelite frames, the red convection seems really to have died off though but I might just be interpreting things wrong.

Sanibel · #17 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:50 am

Sharp, clear eye. No more wobbles.

The entire basin is primed with a primordial soup of moisture. If the EPAC boil-over ahead of it affects it is unknown.

As I said a few days ago, it made sense that the high-end of intensity would be threatened with nothing but good conditions over water.

Extrapolation of track goes into the mid-Yucatan.

Intensity is unpredictable, but storms of the past have gotten stronger west of Jamaica. At 940 this still has pressure to drop...

Anonymous · #18 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:51 am

See, thats the thing. What is going to weaken it dramatically?

The shear? No.
Dry air? Hopefully, but that is leaving the picture.
Land? YES

But, there is no land until the Yucatan, so inner core changes will determine the intensity.

#19 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 12:00 pm

may the Force be with those in its path. oh gosh.

<RICKY>

calidoug · #20 Postby **calidoug** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 12:03 pm

Innotech wrote:I dunno, she appears to be losing convection rapidly. This may be her peak.

No.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~kossin/articl ... 02_MWR.pdf

The upshot, for *many* (not all) storms

(1) The large cirrus "shield" varies daily, all else being equal:

Maximum: 1800 LST (Local Standard Time), e.g. right now, 1800 EST = 1900 EDT = 7PM EDT

Minimum: 0600 LST, e.g. 7AM EDT

(2) CDO convection near center varies semi-daily (due to semi-daily solar atmospheric tide):

Coldest Tops: 0400 and 1600 LST, e.g. 5AM and 5PM EDT
Warmest Tops: in between, presumably 11AM, 11PM. EDT

Put the two together, and it will appear most fierce in the 5PM - 7PM EDT window.

New Update: Emily Winds 150mph Pressure 940mb

New Update: Emily Winds 150mph Pressure 940mb

Not "losing convection rapidly". Daily and semi-da

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