Has landfall about 100 miles further north than the 18z run. Pretty close to the TPC's latest track at landfall however it looks to be too far south on the early hours.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif
00z GFS......
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00z GFS......
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with this having the new Gulf-IV data now, I'm sure this is a pretty solid landfall within some reason. Perhaps a bit farther north since it is south, but I am increasing confidence in a Mexico landfall rather than TX one.
Still, southern TX residents should continue to monitor this very closely.
Still, southern TX residents should continue to monitor this very closely.
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mike18xx
And, now that it's out, Emily has decided to spend the last hour tracking due west after nearly NW movement all afternoon....
My guess: She's finally "popped off" the dragging influence of Jamaica (witness feeder convection re-establishing off the west end), and the center is darting back to an position along an extrapolated WNW route from before arriving close to Jamaica and moving NW "shank right".
If that's the case, she'll go west for a few hours, scare Belize, then resume WNW movement. With her primary feed no longer running over land, she should also strengthen. (I also observe the anti-cyclone aloft catching up on the south side as Emily's exhaust has circled back around and blasted the top of South America clear of any lingering westerlies).
My guess: She's finally "popped off" the dragging influence of Jamaica (witness feeder convection re-establishing off the west end), and the center is darting back to an position along an extrapolated WNW route from before arriving close to Jamaica and moving NW "shank right".
If that's the case, she'll go west for a few hours, scare Belize, then resume WNW movement. With her primary feed no longer running over land, she should also strengthen. (I also observe the anti-cyclone aloft catching up on the south side as Emily's exhaust has circled back around and blasted the top of South America clear of any lingering westerlies).
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