90L Miami Forecast Discussion/Models- Possible Depression?

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fci
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90L Miami Forecast Discussion/Models- Possible Depression?

#1 Postby fci » Wed Jul 20, 2005 7:03 pm

The Miami Forecast Discussion has 90L being driven North based on the models but is skeptical that the models are right.

Here is what they said at 2:09 PM:
"the next feature should be a tropical
wave/disturbance across Hispaniola into the Caribbean advancing
toward South Florida. Most of the convection is north of
Hispaniola. This disturbance could enhance convection Thursday
and Friday across our area but the devil will be in the details.
NAM and GFS now seem to agree on moving the disturbance across the
far side of the Bahamas through Thursday night. Then they both
develop a closed low...tropical depression?...east of the Florida
Peninsula by Friday morning and move it north without really
affecting the state. With a weak system it would seem more logical
that the system would continue moving along the south side of the
ridge and across the peninsula. The model scenario seems questionable
and it will be interesting to see what happens. For this package
will expect disturbance to continue west-northwest and show
enhancement of convection across South Florida Thursday and
Friday...trending back toward climatology for the weekend. "
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