Model support for /something/ to form right on the GC...

[Steve]

in the next few days. Go to the PSU or FSU genesis potential site and run whatever models you want at either surface or most of the 250mb 500mb or 750mb levels and you'll see what I mean. I don't have time to check into the coldcore/warmcore site and run that yet (nor am I sure since there's no low there that anything would even be up). But I guess we're going to have to watch to see if something forms out of nothing near the MS/LA coast. A couple of models spin something up and move it westward toward the Texas Coast. The FSU MM5 (the one people confuse with the FSU Superensemble which Derek says isn't run at a high enough resolution) actually pinwheels a pretty tight system into the NW Coast of Florida.

So hey, I'm not making any pronouncements on development (nor whether it would even be baroclinic or barotropic), just throwing out the idea that some models apparently see a low in conjunction with the front and large high pressure over the SE US. I guess we usually look to the south in that scenario, but who knows?

Steve

[WeatherEmperor]

hey Steve what do you think of the pattern setup over the US and Atlantic in regards to 92L having a possible impact on the US.

<RICKY>

[alicia-w]

Where would a link for that site be located?

[Steve]

Gotta jet to work, but here's FSU's site:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Here's PSU's site:

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

>>hey Steve what do you think of the pattern setup over the US and Atlantic in regards to 92L having a possible impact on the US.

Tough to say this far out WE. Depends on how long the high lasts and how it merges with the Atlantic High. Most of the models weaken it from the west in the 6-7 day period. If that happens, I could see a threat to the SE US Coast - and that's the scenario most of the global models are hinting at. Whether it would stay offshore or not, it's too early to tell. There's also an outside chance 92L splits with the northern energy heading off toward the NW and the southern portion of the wave continues west toward Central America. If I was anywhere from Miami to Duck, I'd be glued to it though

Steve

[jasons2k]

Yes, JB has been harping on this for the past 2 or 3 days and this AM he said he will be watching the NW Gulf this weekend.

AFD from Houston says nothing about this, other than this: UPPER THROUGH OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BECOMES A CLOSED LOW WHILE MOVING TO SE LOUISIANA BY SUNDAY. THIS LOW IS PROGGED BY GFS TO MOVE TO TEXAS COASTAL REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN MOVING OVER TEXAS BY MID WEEK.

Interestingly, NWS Houston did not think the front would push offshore but surface obs and radar show front clearly offshore TX coast. Will be interesting to watch....

[Ivanhater]

Yes, JB has been harping on this for the past 2 or 3 days and this AM he said he will be watching the NW Gulf this weekend.

AFD from Houston says nothing about this, other than this: UPPER THROUGH OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BECOMES A CLOSED LOW WHILE MOVING TO SE LOUISIANA BY SUNDAY. THIS LOW IS PROGGED BY GFS TO MOVE TO TEXAS COASTAL REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN MOVING OVER TEXAS BY MID WEEK.

Interestingly, NWS Houston did not think the front would push offshore but surface obs and radar show front clearly offshore TX coast. Will be interesting to watch....

i guess the models are showing development near se Louisiana, there seems to be some activity there right now, probably nothing to do with whatever may develop, but i for one will be watching any complex of thunderstorms...i think im paranoid

[Steve]

>>i guess the models are showing development near se Louisiana, there seems to be some activity there right now, probably nothing to do with whatever may develop, but i for one will be watching any complex of thunderstorms...i think im paranoid

LOL. The last one to form at or near the coast was Bertha in 2002 I think. I do remember one complex coming down that formed near the gulf, went into the Gulf and came back up. But I don't remember what particular storm that was. I guess there is precedent for close-in or on-shore development down here, but I wouldn't want to make that call.

Thanks for the headsup on JB schlitz. I'll check out his video later on.

Steve

[Stormcenter]

>>i guess the models are showing development near se Louisiana, there seems to be some activity there right now, probably nothing to do with whatever may develop, but i for one will be watching any complex of thunderstorms...i think im paranoid

LOL. The last one to form at or near the coast was Bertha in 2002 I think. I do remember one complex coming down that formed near the gulf, went into the Gulf and came back up. But I don't remember what particular storm that was. I guess there is precedent for close-in or on-shore development down here, but I wouldn't want to make that call.

Thanks for the headsup on JB schlitz. I'll check out his video later on.

Steve

Steve I also notice the complex of the LA. coastline this morning and after reading your thread it's got me interested.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Stormcenter]

Oh it's probably nothing, right?

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

[rockyman]

Probably nothing...but there does appear to be some turning east of the mouth of the Mississippi River...Look here on the Mobile radar loop

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kmob.shtml

[mvtrucking]

Oh it's probably nothing, right?

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

I guess I will put my Grand Isle fishing trip on hold for another week.

[beachbum_al]

Of course I am no scientist or an expert on the weather but I don't remember our local stations around here saying anything except the cold front is going to stall out around us and bring rain and a little cooler temps. Just have to wait and see.

[Steve]

mv,

Isn't the big tarpon rodeo there this weekend?

I still haven't researched past some model looks, but today is different than it has been here in New Orleans. There are a few different cloud deck layers, it's milder here than it has been and there's a gentle breeze out the northwest.

None of the buoys show any material lower pressure from yesterday (all running around 29.99-30.00"). Most of the winds offshore are also NW or N. So if anything is going to happen, it's not going to happen anytime soon IMO.

Steve

[duris]

I guess I will put my Grand Isle fishing trip on hold for another week.

New Orleans AFD this morning suggests rain this weekend will be closer to MS at least part of the weekend but does mention moisture there moving west by end of the weekend, so Grand Isle may be iffy.

COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AND NORTH/CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY AND APPROACH THE
COAST FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS TROUGH WILL LEAVE BEHIND A WEAKNESS IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND THAT WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN. WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF UPPER
TROUGH TODAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND
AMPLE MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH HIGH
END SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. THIS COVERAGE WILL
BASICALLY BE REVERSED ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SINKS FARTHER SOUTH
AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY. AS THE DRIER AIR BECOMES ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PLAN TO ONLY MENTION
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WHERE SOMEWHAT
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE WARRANTING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEAKNESS ALOFT MAY SHIFT FARTHER WEST
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ONCE
AGAIN.

[jasons2k]

Thanks for the headsup on JB schlitz. I'll check out his video later on.

Steve

NP Steve. Have not seen today's video but he just had a one-liner tidbit in an abbreviated column this AM.

I don't think things will get very interesting until Saturday if anything comes out of this...we'll see...

[Stormtrack]

Interestingly, NWS Houston did not think the front would push offshore but surface obs and radar show front clearly offshore TX coast. Will be interesting to watch....

I live 45 miles south of Houston near the gulf and I don't think a front came through here. There was no rain and it's already hot and it's 10:30 in the AM.

[GalvestonDuck]

Interestingly, NWS Houston did not think the front would push offshore but surface obs and radar show front clearly offshore TX coast. Will be interesting to watch....

I live 45 miles south of Houston near the gulf and I don't think a front came through here. There was no rain and it's already hot and it's 10:30 in the AM.

Agreed...and NWS Hou/Galv says our high temps "WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES."

Ugh...hot!

[mvtrucking]

mv,

Isn't the big tarpon rodeo there this weekend?

I still haven't researched past some model looks, but today is different than it has been here in New Orleans. There are a few different cloud deck layers, it's milder here than it has been and there's a gentle breeze out the northwest.

None of the buoys show any material lower pressure from yesterday (all running around 29.99-30.00"). Most of the winds offshore are also NW or N. So if anything is going to happen, it's not going to happen anytime soon IMO.

Steve

Sure is Steve. The 84th edition takes place this weekend.

[hicksta]

Interestingly, NWS Houston did not think the front would push offshore but surface obs and radar show front clearly offshore TX coast. Will be interesting to watch....

I live 45 miles south of Houston near the gulf and I don't think a front came through here. There was no rain and it's already hot and it's 10:30 in the AM.

Agreed...and NWS Hou/Galv says our high temps "WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES."

Ugh...hot!

I feel yall, but since im in summer right now. All i do is invite some girls over and go swim in the bay. its the best life.

[jasons2k]

Interestingly, NWS Houston did not think the front would push offshore but surface obs and radar show front clearly offshore TX coast. Will be interesting to watch....

I live 45 miles south of Houston near the gulf and I don't think a front came through here. There was no rain and it's already hot and it's 10:30 in the AM.

Look at satellite, radar, and surface obs. Also:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
920 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2005

.DISCUSSION...
CF IS OFFSHORE AND MOVING SE ACROSS OUR MARINE AREA. WINDS AT BUOY 35 ARE NW AROUND 15 KTS. DW PTS REMAIN IN THE MID 70S ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS...BUT THESE SHOULD FALL SOME DURING THE DAY.