MJO

[cycloneye]

I know that those who want to see action will not like this thread but I have to post the reallity of what is going on.

The green lines represent the favorable phase of the MJO and the brown lines represent the unfavorable phase.If you look at the graphic almost all the atlantic basin is in the dry MJO or unfavorable.This will last for a couple more weeks and believe me when the favorable MJO (Madden Julian Occillation) arrives in the atlantic things will heat up coinciding with the start of the peak of the season.My friend Don Sutherland has more graphics about this in his thread at tropical analysis forum.So folks let's take it easy and wait for things to heat up again after mid august and yes coinciding with the start of the peak of the season.At link below for those who not know what the (Madden Julian Occillation) is a complete explanation of about it.

http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/not ... 2/mjo.html

[TampaFl]

Thanks Cycloneye for the good explanation and graphics . Now would be a good time for everyone to get pleanty of rest and relaxation , because as Cycloneye stated, from mid August on it is going to be extremly busy in the tropics.

Robert

[cycloneye]

However it does not mean that any development can occur but with this factor it is more difficult to have systems form.THe question now arises if 93L can survive the MJO dry phase.

[Frank2]

Yes, I agree that the Atlantic is definitely in a passive state at this time, and was one reason why I believed that the current wave east of the Bahamas would not develop. Incidentially, one other thing to note here is the calendar.

It's hard to believe, but August 1 is just a day away, and, that means that we only have another 6 weeks or so before the most active portion of the season ends (since statistically activity drops off fairly quickly after mid-September, especially when it concerns US landfalling systems).

Of course, last year's season did not begin in ernest until August 10th, so, we'll see what happens, but still - if the cycle is slow in changing (I do not state expertise with the MJO theory), then, that could really diminish the active portion of the season in the Atlantic - and perhaps shortening the window for Cape Verde systems to develop.

Since Global Warming seems to be disrupting many weather cycles, it's hard to tell if the MJO is "operating" normally - if it's slow in changing, that could really make a difference.

We'll see what happens,

Frank

[Frank2]

By the way, it occured to me this morning that while the Atlantic so far has had a record number of named systems, we are forgetting that the A, B, and C systems were weak tropical storms, the D and E systems major hurricanes, and the most two recent systems (Franklin and Gert) being two other weak tropical storms, so, while the season has been very busy, out of 7 named systems, 2 were significant, while 5 were not - or approximately only 35% of the total number of systems being siginficant enough to be classified as a hurricane or major hurricane.

That's still busy, but, perhaps this is something to consider (especially considering that the total percentage of hurricanes could have been much higher).

Frank

[EDR1222]

One thing to remember is that the environment in July is usually not condusive for stronger hurricanes. Dennis and Emily were unusually strong storms for July. I think records were also set for intensity by one or maybe both of these storms for the month. At least for modern times.

[Frank2]

Yes, you are correct on both issues, but it's interesting to note that the Atlantic, Cariibbean and Gulf have had either powerful or weak systems so far this season - a 2:7 or 5:7 ratio. The media seems to enjoy the "record season so far" way of reporting (which only scares most people, incidentially), but, the reality is that so far we've had just 2 systems that were truly significant.

Frank

[WeatherEmperor]

I remember how much I was hoping for some time off to relax but now I guess Im gonna eat my words. I want something to track around here.

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

Yes, you are correct on both issues, but it's interesting to note that the Atlantic, Cariibbean and Gulf have had either powerful or weak systems so far this season - a 2:7 or 5:7 ratio. The media seems to enjoy the "record season so far" way of reporting (which only scares most people, incidentially), but, the reality is that so far we've had just 2 systems that were truly significant.

Frank

Those 2 systems Dennis and Emily reached the average of major canes normally which is 2.The question is how many more major canes will be in the rest of 2005.

[wxwatcher91]

By the way, it occured to me this morning that while the Atlantic so far has had a record number of named systems, we are forgetting that the A, B, and C systems were weak tropical storms, the D and E systems major hurricanes, and the most two recent systems (Franklin and Gert) being two other weak tropical storms, so, while the season has been very busy, out of 7 named systems, 2 were significant, while 5 were not - or approximately only 35% of the total number of systems being siginficant enough to be classified as a hurricane or major hurricane.

That's still busy, but, perhaps this is something to consider (especially considering that the total percentage of hurricanes could have been much higher).

Frank

remember though that Arlene, Cindy, and Frankin all reached 70mph just 4mph under hurricane threshold...

another big question is whether anything will form at 5pm or 11pm today... if not today is the first day in I think 27 ot 28 days with no tropical activity...

[JTD]

I have a feeling the most powerful 2005 hurricanes are behind us. I also have a feeling that this season will be considered a bust come Oct. 1.

Just my feeling and my opinion.

[wxwatcher91]

cycloneye, so how long do you think this will last and how many tropical systems do you think will manage to form meanwhile???

[cycloneye]

cycloneye, so how long do you think this will last and how many tropical systems do you think will manage to form meanwhile???

At my first post in this thread I said the timetable for the unfavorable MJO around 2 weeks.About any development yes it can occur but it will have hurdles to pass thru down the road and I am talking of 93L.

[johngaltfla]

I know that those who want to see action will not like this thread but I have to post the reallity of what is going on.

The green lines represent the favorable phase of the MJO and the brown lines represent the unfavorable phase.If you look at the graphic almost all the atlantic basin is in the dry MJO or unfavorable.This will last for a couple more weeks and believe me when the favorable MJO (Madden Julian Occillation) arrives in the atlantic things will heat up coinciding with the start of the peak of the season.My friend Don Sutherland has more graphics about this in his thread at tropical analysis forum.So folks let's take it easy and wait for things to heat up again after mid august and yes coinciding with the start of the peak of the season.At link below for those who not know what the (Madden Julian Occillation) is a complete explanation of about it.

http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/not ... 2/mjo.html

Great graphics and explanation. I like Mr. Sutherland's updates and analysis and would love to bounce one question back at all of the experts;

With this lull, won't this mean we'll increase the SST's in the Atlantic a degree or so more and keep them over 88-90 in the GOM? If yes, then won't or should we expect more intense storms when the peak begins?

Inquiring and plywood minded souls want to know.

[Hurricaneman]

It looks like a week or two of quiet

[cycloneye]

Look what is comming out of Africa.A big sal surge that will cap the CV season for a while.



Another prospective of that huge sal event look at the gray color west of africa.

[ConvergenceZone]

cycloneye,
thanx for the great post. Now I can get some things done around here . One thing though, by looking at that map, how can you tell that the dry air should move out in about 3 weeks or so? I'm just curious what you go by for my own education.

Thanks!

[Astro_man92]

Look what is comming out of Africa.A big sal surge that will cap the CV season for a while.

this lull is making the tropics boring I bet if the SAL hadn't come we would have had 3 or 4 more named stroms already but that is just me.

[Hurricaneman]

It will probably be mid month before the pudding hits the fan

[ConvergenceZone]

astro_man, hehe I know the feeling. I always try to take this time to get as much done around the house as possible, because I know that once it gets active, I'll be all over these boards and won't get anything done


Time goes by fast though, before ya know it, it will be Mid-August and we'll be on fire again.