GOM Threat - further SW

[jasons2k]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



With all the talk of a GOM system in the works, there has been much focus on the weak low south of Mobile. I don't think this will be the area for anything to form.

The trough/wind shift has pushed much deeper into the GOM than I (or anyone else for that matter) expected a few days ago.

Looking at the 12Z NAM, it looks like it's picking up on some mid-level anticyclone near 24/94, which isn't that significant, but I think something's going on down there and the models just aren't doing a good job of picking up on it.

There is also an awful lot of cenvection this AM off the TX coast pushing south. Even looking at the NHC satellite loop, it looks the convergence zone on the SW end of the trough is setting up nicely.

SO, in summary, I don't think the low south of Mobile will develop into anything. I think any development, if any, will be further southwest, near 24/93 and then drift W towards Mexico.

[Frank P]

most of the convection I see in the GOM is in the northeastern area off the florida panhandle, it has been building up all morning....

[Frank P]

pressure readings from bouys in the ne gom not very low at all.. off the coast of MS winds out of the n, s to sw off the panhandle...

[Stormcenter]

most of the convection I see in the GOM is in the northeastern area off the florida panhandle, it has been building up all morning....

Yep you are correct, NE GOM.

[jasons2k]

Yes, most of the convection this am is in the NE GOM. A blind man could see that on the pics.

All I'm saying is keep an eye on the SW end of the trough. It's being ignored, and probably for good reason, but if convection can fire in that region the satellite shots *may* look quite a bit different in 24-48 hours.

[Steve]

>>pressure readings from bouys in the ne gom not very low at all.. off the coast of MS winds out of the n, s to sw off the panhandle...

Indeed. They're all pretty much as high as they were yesterday (if not .01" higher). The question is how can this area (NE Gulf) feedback without any pressure falls? I don't see it. Then again, most of today's 00z globals didn't do anything for 36 hours - and then, kept it weak.

NAO's back to neutral (progged +/-1 next 7 days ).

Steve

[WeatherEmperor]

>>pressure readings from bouys in the ne gom not very low at all.. off the coast of MS winds out of the n, s to sw off the panhandle...

Indeed. They're all pretty much as high as they were yesterday (if not .01" higher). The question is how can this area (NE Gulf) feedback without any pressure falls? I don't see it. Then again, most of today's 00z globals didn't do anything for 36 hours - and then, kept it weak.

NAO's back to neutral (progged +/-1 next 7 days ).

Steve

Steve what do you mean by NAO is back to neutral. What does this mean and what impacts does it have?

<RICKY>

[jasons2k]

Here are some NAO info. sites:

http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/cag/NAO/

http://www.baysoundings.com/fall04/commentary.html

http://www.whoi.edu/institutes/occi/act ... treach.htm

http://www.independentwx.com/2005.html

[Steve]

>>Steve what do you mean by NAO is back to neutral. What does this mean and what impacts does it have?

If you read some of those links above, you can kind of put 2 and 2 together. At the simplist level, the index has to do with pressures and pressure systems in the North Atlantic. Occasionally when it crosses from positive to negative or negative to positive you will see a pulse in tropical activity. The Climate Prediction Center has some links to the Ensemble-derived forecasts:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... x_mrf.html

A caution that someone noted the other day was that the ensemble forecasts are more highly suspect than if you looked at the European model for what's going to be happening in the North Atlantic. But the ensemble 7 day predictor has been doing pretty well since April.
---------------------------------
And the 4 month readings link. If you look at timing on some of the storms this year, you'll see a direct correlation to where the index was at "x" point in time.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... index.html

Another thing that the NAO can sometimes bring you (obviously you have to average it in with other northern/polar indexes and look at what's going on at the surface in the Atlantic Ocean) is a hint at future tracks of systems that might be in the Central or Eastern Atlantic. A strong sustained positive or negative could indicate a pattern where the Gulf or SE is more susceptible.

Ultimately it's just another index you can look at on a slow day. There are plenty of them (AO, SOI, etc.) that tie in with various tropical weather processes.

Steve

[jasons2k]

thanks steve for the info. - i agree it helps to start with basics...