Central GOM

#1 Postby **tailgater** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 7:09 am

A possible MLC has formed in the GOM 25N 88 W gaining some T-storms this am BEARS WATCHING ?

rockyman · #2 Postby **rockyman** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 7:14 am

According to the NHC, this is a weak ULL:

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 24N97W
LEAVING THE W GULF DRY WITH HIGH CLOUDS S OF 26N FROM 90W-94W.
A MID/UPPER HIGH IS OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 29N93W ENE INTO THE W ATLC BEYOND 32N76W. A
SURFACE 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS ALONG THE N GULF COAST NEAR
MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO
32N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING
GENERATED BY THE DIFFLUENCE ON THE N SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS ALONG THE N GULF COAST E OF TEXAS. SMALL...WEAK UPPER LOW
IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N87W WITH DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N
FROM 82W-87W.

#3 Postby **tailgater** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 7:27 am

I hadn't seen that disc. but just looking at sat. pics it must extend down to mid levels also.

Javlin · #4 Postby **Javlin** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 7:28 am

Thks Rocky.Been a long time since I seen so manyULL's on the map.

rockyman · #5 Postby **rockyman** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 7:58 am

tailgater wrote:I hadn't seen that disc. but just looking at sat. pics it must extend down to mid levels also.

maybe...how can you tell?

#6 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 9:54 am

I saw this a few days ago on the NAM and may be something to watch.

#7 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 10:25 am

NHC doesn't mention it in their 10:30am outlook but of course they could with next outlook. Things have a way of changing quickly in the tropics.

#8 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 10:42 am

It's interesting anytime you have a swirl in the GOM. IMO

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

#9 Postby **alicia-w** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 10:47 am

It IS interesting since last week the models had something developing exactly in that spot.

#10 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 10:59 am

Nothing but an ULL clearly visible on WV imagery. Now if it persists for several days and grows with convection then it might have a slim chance of working to the surface, all this if it doesn't run out of room in the GOM. I give it a 5% chance at this point.

#11 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 11:04 am

Dean4Storms wrote:Nothing but an ULL clearly visible on WV imagery. Now if it persists for several days and grows with convection then it might have a slim chance of working to the surface, all this if it doesn't run out of room in the GOM. I give it a 5% chance at this point.

I tell you what it's not moving much so it may be worth keeping an eye on.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#12 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 11:38 am

hey, i wouldn't take my eyes of this yet....i know there is a broad low pressure center on the surface and a descent MLC...there is not much convection there right now but, that could change....i think we really need to watch this, especially TX...the flow is into TX right now and you can see that on the sat...we will see

#13 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 11:47 am

This from the Mobile AFD

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...SURFACE TROF AND WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE GULF COASTAL REGION FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND GET PUSHED
SOUTH OVER THE GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. WITH THIS...STILL EXPECT TREND OF PAST SEVERAL FCST CYCLES
OF TAPERING POPS OFF TO THE SCATTERED/CHANCE CATEGORY MID TO LATE
WEEK...WITH NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PREVIOUS FCST.

dwg71 · #14 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 11:50 am

Its nothing, and will remain nothing.

HouTXmetro · #15 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 11:56 am

No convection whatsoever. Chance of development, .001

#16 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 12:08 pm

deltadog03 wrote:hey, i wouldn't take my eyes of this yet....i know there is a broad low pressure center on the surface and a descent MLC...there is not much convection there right now but, that could change....i think we really need to watch this, especially TX...the flow is into TX right now and you can see that on the sat...we will see

I don't think anyone is saying not to watch it, just that right now it is not a threat. Like I said, if and again I say "if" it develops convection in and over the center and remains for several days over the water it could work its way to the surface, but that is remote.

HouTXmetro · #17 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 1:05 pm

Do ULL ever works its way down to the surface?

#18 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 1:08 pm

yeah they can.....i know there is not much threat there right now...but, like you and jb said let it sit there for a couple of days and we will see what happens

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