Extratropical Irene Advisories
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cycloneye
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Extratropical Irene Advisories
Let's keep this thread without many comments as the official information flows into here.
Last edited by cycloneye on Fri Aug 19, 2005 7:05 am, edited 87 times in total.
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WeatherEmperor
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gkrangers
766
WTNT34 KNHC 042029
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU AUG 04 2005
...AND YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE ATLANTIC...
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 34.5 WEST OR ABOUT 695 MILES...1115 KM...WEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...12.7 N... 34.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
WTNT34 KNHC 042029
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU AUG 04 2005
...AND YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE ATLANTIC...
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 34.5 WEST OR ABOUT 695 MILES...1115 KM...WEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...12.7 N... 34.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
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gkrangers
124
WTNT44 KNHC 042030
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2005
YES...INDEED WE HAVE ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE DEEP
TROPICS. SATELLITE IMAGES AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT
THE AREA AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN
THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND
CAN BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM IS LARGE
WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE BANDS...EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A BURST OF
CONVECTION NEAR THE ALLEGED CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN ITS
EARLY FORMATIVE STAGE AND THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. IN
FACT...IT COULD REFORM ANYWHERE WITHIN THE LARGER CIRCULATION. THIS
MAKES TRACKING THE SYSTEM HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE
OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST
THROUGH 5 DAYS...GRADUALLY GAINING LATITUDE. NOW THAT WE HAVE A
DEPRESSION...THE 18Z GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WILL PROBABLY GIVE US BETTER
GUIDANCE TONIGHT.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST MIRRORS THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH BRINGS THE
DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STATUS BY 72 HOURS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK OF THE CYCLONE.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/2100Z 12.7N 34.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 13.0N 36.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 13.5N 38.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 14.0N 40.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 14.5N 42.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 07/1800Z 15.5N 46.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 08/1800Z 17.5N 49.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 09/1800Z 20.0N 53.0W 75 KT
$$
WTNT44 KNHC 042030
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2005
YES...INDEED WE HAVE ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE DEEP
TROPICS. SATELLITE IMAGES AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT
THE AREA AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN
THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND
CAN BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM IS LARGE
WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE BANDS...EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A BURST OF
CONVECTION NEAR THE ALLEGED CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN ITS
EARLY FORMATIVE STAGE AND THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. IN
FACT...IT COULD REFORM ANYWHERE WITHIN THE LARGER CIRCULATION. THIS
MAKES TRACKING THE SYSTEM HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE
OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST
THROUGH 5 DAYS...GRADUALLY GAINING LATITUDE. NOW THAT WE HAVE A
DEPRESSION...THE 18Z GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WILL PROBABLY GIVE US BETTER
GUIDANCE TONIGHT.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST MIRRORS THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH BRINGS THE
DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STATUS BY 72 HOURS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK OF THE CYCLONE.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/2100Z 12.7N 34.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 13.0N 36.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 13.5N 38.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 14.0N 40.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 14.5N 42.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 07/1800Z 15.5N 46.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 08/1800Z 17.5N 49.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 09/1800Z 20.0N 53.0W 75 KT
$$
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WeatherEmperor
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cycloneye
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670
WTNT44 KNHC 050231
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2005
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE THIS EVENING. AN SSM/I OVERPASS AT 2245Z AND SHORTWAVE IR
IMAGERY FROM METEOSAT-8 SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE CENTER IS
ELONGATED NORTH-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...WITH SATELLITE FIXES
FROM TAFB AND SAB FALLING NEAR THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST END. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE MEAN CENTER IS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ADVISORY POSITION. OVERPASSES FROM THE TRMM AND AQUA SATELLITES
LATER TONIGHT MAY HELP RESOLVE THE ISSUE. DEEP CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
25 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/11. THE DEPRESSION
IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD
PRODUCE A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. AFTER
THAT...THE CYCLONE COULD BE APPROACHING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN
THE MID-ATLANTIC...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 18Z GFS MODEL
DID NOT APPEAR TO INITIALIZE THE CYCLONE WELL...WHILE THE 18Z
NOGAPS MODEL DISSIPATED THE SYSTEM IN LESS THAN 72 HR.
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THUS...THE BIGGEST CONTROL ON THE
INTENSITY SHOULD BE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER 27C WATER...WHILE REPORTS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION SHOW 26C WATER. COMBINE THIS
WITH THE BROAD CIRCULATION AND THE INITIAL INTENSIFICATION SHOULD
SOMEWHAT SLOW...PERHAPS EVEN SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE
FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 28C WATER BY 72 HR...WHICH
COULD ALLOW MORE STRENGTHENING THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...
ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK WOULD DELAY THE ARRIVAL OVER
WARMER WATER AND SLOW INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND IS SIMILAR TO...BUT STRONGER
THAN...THE SHIPS MODEL.
THE WIND RADII FORECAST AT 72 HR HAS BEEN REVISED BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY AND THE BROAD CYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF THE DEPRESSION.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0300Z 13.0N 35.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 13.3N 36.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 13.7N 38.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 06/1200Z 14.3N 41.1W 45 KT
48HR VT 07/0000Z 14.9N 43.2W 55 KT
72HR VT 08/0000Z 16.5N 47.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 09/0000Z 18.5N 50.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 10/0000Z 20.5N 54.0W 75 KT
WTNT44 KNHC 050231
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2005
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE THIS EVENING. AN SSM/I OVERPASS AT 2245Z AND SHORTWAVE IR
IMAGERY FROM METEOSAT-8 SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE CENTER IS
ELONGATED NORTH-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...WITH SATELLITE FIXES
FROM TAFB AND SAB FALLING NEAR THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST END. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE MEAN CENTER IS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ADVISORY POSITION. OVERPASSES FROM THE TRMM AND AQUA SATELLITES
LATER TONIGHT MAY HELP RESOLVE THE ISSUE. DEEP CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
25 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/11. THE DEPRESSION
IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD
PRODUCE A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. AFTER
THAT...THE CYCLONE COULD BE APPROACHING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN
THE MID-ATLANTIC...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 18Z GFS MODEL
DID NOT APPEAR TO INITIALIZE THE CYCLONE WELL...WHILE THE 18Z
NOGAPS MODEL DISSIPATED THE SYSTEM IN LESS THAN 72 HR.
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THUS...THE BIGGEST CONTROL ON THE
INTENSITY SHOULD BE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER 27C WATER...WHILE REPORTS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION SHOW 26C WATER. COMBINE THIS
WITH THE BROAD CIRCULATION AND THE INITIAL INTENSIFICATION SHOULD
SOMEWHAT SLOW...PERHAPS EVEN SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE
FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 28C WATER BY 72 HR...WHICH
COULD ALLOW MORE STRENGTHENING THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...
ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK WOULD DELAY THE ARRIVAL OVER
WARMER WATER AND SLOW INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND IS SIMILAR TO...BUT STRONGER
THAN...THE SHIPS MODEL.
THE WIND RADII FORECAST AT 72 HR HAS BEEN REVISED BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY AND THE BROAD CYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF THE DEPRESSION.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0300Z 13.0N 35.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 13.3N 36.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 13.7N 38.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 06/1200Z 14.3N 41.1W 45 KT
48HR VT 07/0000Z 14.9N 43.2W 55 KT
72HR VT 08/0000Z 16.5N 47.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 09/0000Z 18.5N 50.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 10/0000Z 20.5N 54.0W 75 KT
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cycloneye
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cycloneye wrote:670
WTNT44 KNHC 050231
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2005
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE THIS EVENING. AN SSM/I OVERPASS AT 2245Z AND SHORTWAVE IR
IMAGERY FROM METEOSAT-8 SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE CENTER IS
ELONGATED NORTH-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...WITH SATELLITE FIXES
FROM TAFB AND SAB FALLING NEAR THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST END. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE MEAN CENTER IS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ADVISORY POSITION. OVERPASSES FROM THE TRMM AND AQUA SATELLITES
LATER TONIGHT MAY HELP RESOLVE THE ISSUE. DEEP CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
25 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/11. THE DEPRESSION
IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD
PRODUCE A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. AFTER
THAT...THE CYCLONE COULD BE APPROACHING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN
THE MID-ATLANTIC...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 18Z GFS MODEL
DID NOT APPEAR TO INITIALIZE THE CYCLONE WELL...WHILE THE 18Z
NOGAPS MODEL DISSIPATED THE SYSTEM IN LESS THAN 72 HR.
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THUS...THE BIGGEST CONTROL ON THE
INTENSITY SHOULD BE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER 27C WATER...WHILE REPORTS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION SHOW 26C WATER. COMBINE THIS
WITH THE BROAD CIRCULATION AND THE INITIAL INTENSIFICATION SHOULD
SOMEWHAT SLOW...PERHAPS EVEN SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE
FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 28C WATER BY 72 HR...WHICH
COULD ALLOW MORE STRENGTHENING THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...
ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK WOULD DELAY THE ARRIVAL OVER
WARMER WATER AND SLOW INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND IS SIMILAR TO...BUT STRONGER
THAN...THE SHIPS MODEL.
THE WIND RADII FORECAST AT 72 HR HAS BEEN REVISED BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY AND THE BROAD CYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF THE DEPRESSION.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0300Z 13.0N 35.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 13.3N 36.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 13.7N 38.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 06/1200Z 14.3N 41.1W 45 KT
48HR VT 07/0000Z 14.9N 43.2W 55 KT
72HR VT 08/0000Z 16.5N 47.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 09/0000Z 18.5N 50.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 10/0000Z 20.5N 54.0W 75 KT
Not wanting to read more into this than my inexperience is seeing...what is your take on this Luis (not expecting a biblical forecast, just your thoughts)? It is so far away but...the forecast positions...?
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MortisFL
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5:00 am TD #9
5:00 am NHC advisory 3 on TD #9
...Poorly organized depression moving over the open tropical
Atlantic...
at 5 am AST...0900z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical
Depression Nine was located near latitude 14.4 north... longitude 36.1 west or about 785 miles...1260 km... west of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph...20 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and the depression could become a tropical storm by Saturday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.
Repeating the 5 am AST position...14.4 N... 36.1 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 30 mph. Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 am AST.
Forecaster Stewart
...Poorly organized depression moving over the open tropical
Atlantic...
at 5 am AST...0900z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical
Depression Nine was located near latitude 14.4 north... longitude 36.1 west or about 785 miles...1260 km... west of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph...20 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and the depression could become a tropical storm by Saturday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.
Repeating the 5 am AST position...14.4 N... 36.1 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 30 mph. Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 am AST.
Forecaster Stewart
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southerngale
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James
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158
WTNT44 KNHC 050901
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005
THE CENTER OF TD-9 REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE POSITION IS ABOUT 60 NMI NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITIONS AND
FORECAST TRACKS BASED ON MICROWAVE AND NIGHTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A 05/0411Z AQUA OVERPASS CLEARLY INDICATED THE BROAD
CIRCULATION WAS BETWEEN 14N AND 15N LATITUDE. A MORE SOUTHERLY
POSITION CLOSER TO 14N WAS CHOSEN SINCE THIS WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE
DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CENTER MAY HAVE
TO BE ADJUSTED FARTHER NORTH ONCE VISIBLE IMAGERY IS AVAILABLE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/11...BASED ON THE
OVERALL MOTION OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE. TD-9 IS
CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE BERMUDA RIDGE THAT IS
BEING CREATED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 29N 42W...AND AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE THAT THE WEAKNESS WILL SLOWLY FILL IN AS THE LOW WEAKENS...
WHICH WILL ACT TO FORCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK AFTER 36 HOURS. IN THE DAY 4 AND 5 TIME PERIODS...THE MODELS
DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE UKMET...NOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF
MODELS TURNING THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD ANOTHER DEVELOPING
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WHEREAS THE GFS AND GFDL MOVE THE STORM
MORE WESTWARD. GIVEN THE HIGH ZONAL FLOW FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE U.S. AND NORTH ATLANTIC...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE
TOWARD THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.
ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW...LESS THAN 5
KT...THE HIGHER LATITUDE INITIAL POSITION AND FORECAST TRACK KEEPS
THE CYCLONE OVER COOLER SSTS UNTIL 72 HOURS. AFTERWARDS. GRADUALLY
INCREASING SSTS ABOVE 28C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR.ON.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0900Z 14.4N 36.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 15.1N 37.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 15.9N 39.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 06/1800Z 16.7N 41.6W 40 KT
48HR VT 07/0600Z 17.7N 44.4W 45 KT
72HR VT 08/0600Z 19.0N 48.6W 55 KT
96HR VT 09/0600Z 20.5N 53.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 10/0600Z 22.0N 58.5W 75 KT
$$
WTNT44 KNHC 050901
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005
THE CENTER OF TD-9 REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE POSITION IS ABOUT 60 NMI NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITIONS AND
FORECAST TRACKS BASED ON MICROWAVE AND NIGHTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A 05/0411Z AQUA OVERPASS CLEARLY INDICATED THE BROAD
CIRCULATION WAS BETWEEN 14N AND 15N LATITUDE. A MORE SOUTHERLY
POSITION CLOSER TO 14N WAS CHOSEN SINCE THIS WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE
DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CENTER MAY HAVE
TO BE ADJUSTED FARTHER NORTH ONCE VISIBLE IMAGERY IS AVAILABLE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/11...BASED ON THE
OVERALL MOTION OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE. TD-9 IS
CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE BERMUDA RIDGE THAT IS
BEING CREATED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 29N 42W...AND AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE THAT THE WEAKNESS WILL SLOWLY FILL IN AS THE LOW WEAKENS...
WHICH WILL ACT TO FORCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK AFTER 36 HOURS. IN THE DAY 4 AND 5 TIME PERIODS...THE MODELS
DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE UKMET...NOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF
MODELS TURNING THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD ANOTHER DEVELOPING
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WHEREAS THE GFS AND GFDL MOVE THE STORM
MORE WESTWARD. GIVEN THE HIGH ZONAL FLOW FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE U.S. AND NORTH ATLANTIC...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE
TOWARD THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.
ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW...LESS THAN 5
KT...THE HIGHER LATITUDE INITIAL POSITION AND FORECAST TRACK KEEPS
THE CYCLONE OVER COOLER SSTS UNTIL 72 HOURS. AFTERWARDS. GRADUALLY
INCREASING SSTS ABOVE 28C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR.ON.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0900Z 14.4N 36.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 15.1N 37.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 15.9N 39.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 06/1800Z 16.7N 41.6W 40 KT
48HR VT 07/0600Z 17.7N 44.4W 45 KT
72HR VT 08/0600Z 19.0N 48.6W 55 KT
96HR VT 09/0600Z 20.5N 53.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 10/0600Z 22.0N 58.5W 75 KT
$$
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