extremely newbie forecasted path-UPDATED

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floridahurricaneguy
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extremely newbie forecasted path-UPDATED

#1 Postby floridahurricaneguy » Thu Aug 04, 2005 10:42 pm

This is my forecast path for Irene or TD 9. At this time I dont have a text forecast but I got a map. There is really no frame for it either though. sorry.

Matt

Image[/img]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

EXACT POINTS NO PERFECT BUT PREDICTING A PATH IN THAT GENERAL DIRECTION
Last edited by floridahurricaneguy on Fri Aug 05, 2005 2:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby Swimdude » Thu Aug 04, 2005 10:51 pm

Hey, everyone starts somewhere!

=)

Soo what's the red mean? Or... What's your predicted intensity?
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#3 Postby floridahurricaneguy » Thu Aug 04, 2005 10:57 pm

Red is hurricane and yellow is TS and green, well i am sure you can guess.

I expected tropical storm within 48 hours and hurricane within 72 and possible landfall in FL as 2/3. But beyond that I dont really know.

Matt
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#4 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:01 pm

:shocked!:
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#5 Postby fci » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:02 pm

I like your graphics but not your forecast.
For obvious reasons!

But, congrats for you stepping out with your thoughts, I encourage them and respect you for putting them out there.
Just want you to be wrong.......
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#6 Postby floridahurricaneguy » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:03 pm

Brent wrote::shocked!:


Scary isnt it. lol

I doubts it nowhere near accurate. But who knows. In my opinions its going to miss the weakness in the ridge.

Matt
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#7 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:04 pm

Brent wrote::shocked!:

You know who that is? :wink:

Think Tampa.
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#8 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:05 pm

jkt21787 wrote:
Brent wrote::shocked!:

You know who that is? :wink:

Think Tampa.


I know... I wasn't going to say anything since w i s h c a s t i n g is a bad word here...
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#9 Postby floridahurricaneguy » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:06 pm

seriously its not -removed-. I am predicting a east coast landfall because i feel it will miss the weakness and WNW and hit anywhere along the coast. :(
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#10 Postby Acral » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:07 pm

Of course, in my uninformed opinion, a East Florida strike is a distinct possibility.
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#11 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:07 pm

Brent wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:
Brent wrote::shocked!:

You know who that is? :wink:

Think Tampa.


I know... I wasn't going to say anything since w i s h c a s t i n g is a bad word here...

Its interesting how it (Tampa) will get into the Northeast Quadrant of the storm, and it stops right after passing near the city. :lol:

Of course, the track is very plausible.
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#12 Postby fci » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:09 pm

I would highly recommend omitting the word "- - - - casting" from all posts.
I got a personal reprimand for its use!!!!
:grr: :grr: :grr:

My keyboard can't even type the word anymore!!!
:lol: :lol: :lol:
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#13 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:15 pm

***The Following is not official***

By THAT forecast-
:eek: :eek: :eek: another wild ride for me!
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#14 Postby floridahurricaneguy » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:19 pm

NO THE STORM DOESNT END AFTER THAT.

I decided not to make the track keep going and going and goind

Image
here is a better view proving is doesnt go right over me. I am not -removed-.
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#15 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:26 pm

Under that forecast, it would not weaken to a TS AFTER moving over the Gulf. :wink: It might before it re-emerges depending on intensity at landfall, but not AFTER.
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#16 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:29 pm

flhurricaneguy, by that path we'd get the ne quadrant and some wild winds over the bay. Wait and see game- a strong high would mean a more southerly path.

Big circulation center, we'd likely feel some of the fiercest winds as the inner bands gather strength from the hot bay water.

This would be a BAD scenario... :eek:
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#17 Postby floridahurricaneguy » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:33 pm

Brent wrote:Under that forecast, it would not weaken to a TS AFTER moving over the Gulf. :wink: It might before it re-emerges depending on intensity at landfall, but not AFTER.


Good point and mistake on my part.
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#18 Postby floridahurricaneguy » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:34 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:flhurricaneguy, by that path we'd get the ne quadrant and some wild winds over the bay. Wait and see game- a strong high would mean a more southerly path.

Big circulation center, we'd likely feel some of the fiercest winds as the inner bands gather strength from the hot bay water.

This would be a BAD scenario... :eek:


I originally really did have it going farther south but that path i had looked to far south but I guess now to far north. Oh well it was my first try. I dont know if I want to post another one though after this.

Matt
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#19 Postby Astro_man92 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:35 pm

Great forcast Florida
ImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImage


see they ever like it lol sorry i'm a little hyper
Last edited by Astro_man92 on Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:43 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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#20 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:35 pm

IMO This is possible if we see NO MAJOR TROUGHS OR OTHER FACTORS to force the ridge to back down once it builds in...

^^^Not a wishcast, just based on what bermuda high did last year with Frances and Jeanne
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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