GUTS IN August 6, 2005

[dhweather]

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Gulf of Mexico Tropical Summary GUTS IN on August 6, 2005

<img src="http://www.diamondheadweather.com/guts20050806.jpg">

I'll start with the easy stuff first - the Gulf of Mexico is still laden with
tropical moisture, and more is coming in across Mexico from the
Eastern Pacific ocean.

Now, the more complex feature in the Gulf - The lingering trough
and weak low, just South of Mobile, Alabama. This area has persisted
in the same area for several days now, and there is nothing coming
along in the near future, such as a shortwave, cold front, ridge, or
anything else to push this system out. Two things are stopping it from
tropical cyclone development.

There's an upper level low over Northern Alabama that has taken the dry
air from Central Mississippi and Louisiana and is entraining it into the
weak low. Dry air is never good for a system trying to develop.
This is also producing westerly shear over the system. Second, the
proximity to land will also be a impediment for development.

If this were 2-300 miles to the south, I'm sure it would spin up quickly,
as conditions in most of the Gulf are ripe for development.

There's another feature off the Georgia coast that I'll cover in the WATS UP later today.

PS - I don't expect tropical cyclone develoment in the GOM in the next 24-48 hours.

[EDR1222]

It will be intersting to see how that feature off of GA/NE FL affects the persistent disturbed area in the Gulf.

[dhweather]

I think the ULL over northern Alabama will push teh SC/GA system inland,
and leave our pesky little trough and low "as is".

[vbhoutex]

It appears to me at first glance this morning that the GOM has moved further off the coast this am. It is obviously feeding from all the way over in our area. We will need to watch this closely. It has continued to defy the steering currents which should have taken it to the NE already. The longer it wanders in that area, the more chances of development, imo, as the steering currents continue to weaken.