Tropical Depression Irene Advisory 17
2:00 PM PDT Aug 8 2005 (5:00 PM EDT or 21Z Aug 8 2005)
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For official forecasts...please refer to the NHC. This is an independent product.
Please remember...tropical cyclones can be very unpredictable and can make sudden changes and/or shifts in both track and intensity.
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Irene continues to struggle...but convection has once again refired near the center. The assumption is that Irene has moved into warmer waters...but shear from the upper level low to the north continues to pound Irene. Assuming Irene does not dissipate within the next 36 hours...I forecast Irene to strengthen...though not as much as previous forecasts...as the shear is expected to abate around 48 hours. The intensity forecast is similar to the SHIPS guidance.
The latest models have shifted left...and so has the NHC. With this in mind...I have shifted my forecast back to the west. Though it is too early to tell whether Irene will impact anybody at all...the east coast and Bermuda should continue to watch the storm. It should be noted though that the ECMWF has Irene nearing the coastline of the United States in about a week.
Forecaster Tang
Hour Position Intensity
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Initial 22.5N 51.5W 30 kt
12 hr 22.7N 52.6W 30 kt
24 hr 22.9N 53.7W 35 kt
36 hr 23.2N 55.0W 35 kt
48 hr 23.7N 56.5W 40 kt
72 hr 24.5N 59.3W 45 kt
96 hr 26.0N 62.5W 50 kt
120 hr 27.9N 65.9W 60 kt
Track:
Comments and suggestions welcomed as always.
