New center

[stormernie]

Hi resolution visible loop shows as of 18:15 UTC that the center is developing or has develop at or near 20.5 N 54.7 W you can see the curl in the higher cloud tops. It also looks to be heading in a direction slightly south of due west. But this can't be ascertain since the explosion of the clouds have been toward the south and southwest.

Comments welcome.

[sma10]

I don't believe that is true.

I will say that if it was true, it would certainly throw a huge monkeywrench into the forecast.

[x-y-no]

It looks quite possible that things are getting stacked in the vicinity of that convective flare on the southern side of the envelope. There may not be a tight surface circulation yet, but I think we're headed that way tonight.

The shear in that area and directly ahead has dropped below 10 knots, so that suggests this may last for a while. I expect a return to TS status tonight.

[gatorcane]

don't believe that is true.

I will say that if it was true, it would certainly throw a huge monkeywrench into the forecast.

It is true, Irene does not want to turn NW so far...I expect another westward shift at 5pm followed by another at 11pm...the east coast of the US and FL need to pay attention to this one.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Agree...This thinf is way further south that they think

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Look at the IR and then click on the TPC forcasted points...

[WeatherEmperor]

the shear is not the only thing dropping with Irene. I think that the forward motion has slowed somewhat as well. Anybody agree?

<RICKY>

[gkrangers]

Agree...This thinf is way further south that they think

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Look at the IR and then click on the TPC forcasted points...

Don't look at the ball of convection...its hard to tell exactly where the center is right now. However, if it did reform further south, it will require a south/westward shift in the track.

[deltadog03]

It looks quite possible that things are getting stacked in the vicinity of that convective flare on the southern side of the envelope. There may not be a tight surface circulation yet, but I think we're headed that way tonight.

The shear in that area and directly ahead has dropped below 10 knots, so that suggests this may last for a while. I expect a return to TS status tonight.

hey jan, you talking about 22N or so and 53-54W??

[x-y-no]

the shear is not the only thing dropping with Irene. I think that the forward motion has slowed somewhat as well. Anybody agree?

<RICKY>

Very hard to tell what's motion and what's just new convection right now ... I don't think it's slowed too much, though.

[sponger]

Wow, that center is reinitializing much farther south. If this holds as the true center, we may see alot of model runs trending to the bamm. As for forward speed, it is difficult to tell!

[superfly]

Agree...This thinf is way further south that they think

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Look at the IR and then click on the TPC forcasted points...

Don't look at the ball of convection...its hard to tell exactly where the center is right now. However, if it did reform further south, it will require a south/westward shift in the track.

I see a clear center on visible near 22.2N 53.5W. IR is not good for pinpointing centers.

[dwg71]

Agree...This thinf is way further south that they think

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Look at the IR and then click on the TPC forcasted points...

IR is not a good tool to find center. Look at visable, it shows LLC in the vicinity of 22.5 and 53.7.

[x-y-no]

It looks quite possible that things are getting stacked in the vicinity of that convective flare on the southern side of the envelope. There may not be a tight surface circulation yet, but I think we're headed that way tonight.

The shear in that area and directly ahead has dropped below 10 knots, so that suggests this may last for a while. I expect a return to TS status tonight.

hey jan, you talking about 22N or so and 53-54W??

That's a mid-level circulation, moving almost SW. The LLC, to the extent that there is one, is under the convection flare south of that somewhere, IMHO.

I think things are going to stack up somewhere in the leading side of that big flare this evening. Then the question is does it hold together, or does it all fly apart again?

(I'm in the "it'll hold togerther" camp at this point)

[jax]

Agree...This thinf is way further south that they think

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Look at the IR and then click on the TPC forcasted points...

IR is not a good tool to find center. Look at visable, it shows LLC in the vicinity of 22.5 and 53.7.

that is correct dwg...

[x-y-no]

Agree...This thinf is way further south that they think

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Look at the IR and then click on the TPC forcasted points...

IR is not a good tool to find center. Look at visable, it shows LLC in the vicinity of 22.5 and 53.7.

I think that circulation is an MLC, not an LLC.

[deltadog03]

hey, thanks...its tough to find right now...lol...im in that camp too

[MiamiensisWx]

Agreed. The circulation and potential new center shows up much better on visible imagery (although it is becoming easier to pinpoint over time using infra-red imagery as the system slowly continues this strengthening trend), either using the loop or still, actual image.

[vbhoutex]

I still see the center at around 22.0N, 54.0W. I think the IR blob is fooling some people as the convection spreads S and W. Most definitely continues on a W or slightly S of West course. with the increasing convection and much better organization, I would expect reclassification to TS status this evening.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I agree on the visible being better...But...My point here is how far off the TPC Plots were compared to where our main ball of convection is headed...

[WeatherEmperor]

I still see the center at around 22.0N, 54.0W. I think the IR blob is fooling some people as the convection spreads S and W. Most definitely continues on a W or slightly S of West course. with the increasing convection and much better organization, I would expect reclassification to TS status this evening.

after very very very close inspection I would think you are correct. It wasnt easy though.

<RICKY>