MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/092351ZAUG2005//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4N 132.5E TO 16.4N 127.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 091748Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.6N 131.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.7N
132.0E, IS NOW RELOCATED NEAR 13.6N 131.4E, APPROXIMATELY 415 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH EQUATORWARD AND DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MIN-
IMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOUR IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110000Z.//
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