I finally see a center on visible

[Derek Ortt]

but its nowhere near the clouds. On garp, I do see a center near 24.4N and 64.5W... well SW of any of the deep convection.

That said, it now appears that some type of low-level vortex is forming, though it could be a transient vorticy

[superfly]

but its nowhere near the clouds. On garp, I do see a center near 24.4N and 64.5W... well SW of any of the deep convection.

That said, it now appears that some type of low-level vortex is forming, though it could be a transient vorticy

It's been there the entire time. There's also nothing at 24.5/64.5, it's near 25N/63W.

[storms in NC]

If this is the eye what does it mean down the road?

[jasons2k]

It looks like a mangled mess to me.

Seriously, I just wish we had recon. in there. I see several small vortices but nothing seems to go from top-down.

[Derek Ortt]

there is no eye.

I have found a surface circulation at the lat I have stated... WELL REMOVED FROM THE CONVECTION

[superfly]

If this is the eye what does it mean down the road?

There's no eye yet. We're talking about the LLC.

[storms in NC]

okay I took it the wrong way thank you.

[Ivanhater]

there is no eye.

I have found a surface circulation at the lat I have stated... WELL REMOVED FROM THE CONVECTION

lol, derek, you a little frustrated? i think we all are

[deltadog03]

derek, is there anyway, we can see the pic or no?>

[Derek Ortt]

one second.. I'll try to upload

[deltadog03]

thanks

[Ivanhater]

ummm if thats true...the center is way off the nhc track

[ALhurricane]

I just got into work and was able to take a look at all the ship observations over the Atlantic.

At 18z, there were two ships (one at 23.1/64.3 and the other at 22.5/64.8) both showed a SW wind. The southern ship also reported in at 19z still with at 10kt SW wind.

That being said, it would not match up with a center at 24.4/64.5. Not that I am disputing what you are seeing, just don't think that would be the true center.

The important thing is we do have a west wind component at the surface.

[jasons2k]

I see it Derek (barely). If that is indeed the LLC my intensity forecast is busted.

[wxwatcher91]

but its nowhere near the clouds. On garp, I do see a center near 24.4N and 64.5W... well SW of any of the deep convection.

That said, it now appears that some type of low-level vortex is forming, though it could be a transient vorticy

It's been there the entire time. There's also nothing at 24.5/64.5, it's near 25N/63W.

I see where you are looking... I'm not sure... a couple times I've thought I've spotted a center but it ended up being an area of dry air encased in the convection... you might be right though...

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/images/irenecenter.gif

it may just be a vorticy

[superfly]

but its nowhere near the clouds. On garp, I do see a center near 24.4N and 64.5W... well SW of any of the deep convection.

That said, it now appears that some type of low-level vortex is forming, though it could be a transient vorticy

It's been there the entire time. There's also nothing at 24.5/64.5, it's near 25N/63W.

I see where you are looking... I'm not sure... a couple times I've thought I've spotted a center but it ended up being an area of dry air encased in the convection... you might be right though...

Looking at the visible loop, I see a very distinct LLC at the black circle. Either I'm on crack or you guys are.

[/img]

[sweetpea]

If this is the case, what does it do to the forecast track and intensity? Thanks for any responses. Debbie

[Derek Ortt]

that black dot is very, very far east of where we are seeing the turning

[Derek Ortt]

I see the general SSW winds, AL; however, neither myself or Cangialosi can close anything off anywhere near the Dovrak estimates.

However, that said, we have a center, finally