#10/Jose Forecast #1: Well north of the Islands

[Josephine96]

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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TROPICAL DEPRESSION #10
NJN WEATHER CENTER
520 PM SAT AUG 13TH 2005

Yet another depression has formed, and it looks like we are about to have a continued batting average of .1000. In other words.. 10 TD's.. 10 named storms.

#10 is recently born and is expected to become Jose as early as tomorrow. Maybe even by 11 pm tonight. Early model guidance has him on a "fish" track for 3-4 days.. before a gradual sharp left turn to the almost due west around the 5th day of the period. This will keep yet another storm north of the Islands, but will cause for another week of storm watching for the East Coast.

#10, like most newly born TD's is trying to organize itself. There are a lot of thunderstorms attempting to wrap around the storms' center. Once this occurs, the warmer waters may cause for Jose to grow. But also, growth may be limited if he travels over some of the waters once traveled by Harvey or Irene.

My forecast is for #10 to become Jose rather quickly, and then gradually move to the NW.. before making a sharp west jerk by day 4 or day 5 of the forecast period. This may cause for residents, especially from Florida to the Carolina's to watch him very carefully.

Here's my experimental 5 day forecast on #10/Jose:
Tonight: Becoming Jose.. moving NW.. rather slowly. Max Winds: 40 mph
Sunday: Still moving slowly.. Strengthening a bit. Max Winds: 50 mph
Monday: Still well East of the Islands. Watch carefully for any potential shifts in track. Max Winds: 55 mph
Tuesday: Maybe moving a little faster. Still well away from the Islands. Max Winds: 60 mph
Wednesday: Watching carefully in PR.. Max winds: 70 mph

[WindRunner]

I don't see that much strengthening in the period at all. I still see what will certainly become Jose tomorrow morning being a minimal TS at 120, but I could be overguessing on the shear.

[deltadog03]

most globals don't show a fish...

[Josephine96]

So ya think my intensity forecast may be a little high..? Maybe I'll adjust it with my next forecast

[JTD]

Well done Yeah looking at the globals right now, this is a threat at least to the E.C.

[Josephine96]

Thank you Jason.. By this time next week.. We'll either be watching very closely.. or we'll be watching another harmless fish in the Atlantic

[AL Chili Pepper]

A .1 batting average wouldn't sit well with most managers.

[Swimdude]

There's someone who knows a bit about baseball. Hehehe.

Anyway, I think the intensity forecast is a bit too high as well. I'm completely undecided over whether this will be a fish or not. Time will tell.

[Josephine96]

My intensity forecast will be adjusted most likely in my next forecast.. I can't believe this thing got knocked down to 30 mph