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EX TD 10 is still struglling but forget about SAL and shear will weaken in the next 24 hours. The very moist enviroment and very high SST's in the gulf stream is setting this up for an explosion near the bahamas. This is similar to hurricane frances at least in track. i say it will be a TD again in the next 12 hours. TS in 36 hours and a cat1 in 96 to 120hrs. Beyond that who knows. I am not trying to hype up this storm but I know an enviroment with high SSt's,moist enviroment,low shear etc. is a breeding ground for development for tropical systems.
For track I think the ridge is stronger than it was with Irene. I tend to agre with the GFDL which pull it away from Flordia and I kind of agree with JB with a NC hit. Who knows though It may hit Galveston and it may be a fish. This storm is a long way out. Take my humble opoion for what it's worth. Du1st
My second humble attempt at a decent forecast.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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du1st
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- weatherwoman
- Category 1

- Posts: 364
- Joined: Sun Sep 05, 2004 9:09 pm
- Location: Newport North Carolina
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A long way from the gulfstream.
You really covered a lot of bases there.
For track I think the ridge is stronger than it was with Irene. I tend to agre with the GFDL which pull it away from Flordia and I kind of agree with JB with a NC hit. Who knows though It may hit Galveston and it may be a fish.
You really covered a lot of bases there.
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