Invest 93C for CPAC - 06Z models continue show development

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Invest 93C for CPAC - 06Z models continue show development

#1 Postby WindRunner » Sat Aug 20, 2005 5:14 pm

Image

New Invest 93C.
About 144-148W, 10N

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SAT AUG 20 2005

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

...

A nearly stationary area of thunderstorms is located about 950 miles southeast of South Point. This area is poorly organized, and development, if any, will be slow to occur.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Monday morning.

Birchard.
Last edited by WindRunner on Mon Aug 22, 2005 8:12 am, edited 8 times in total.
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#2 Postby WindRunner » Sat Aug 20, 2005 5:30 pm

And here is the wide visible:

Image
Last edited by WindRunner on Sun Aug 21, 2005 12:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3 Postby WindRunner » Sat Aug 20, 2005 6:45 pm

18Z Models. TS in 24-36hrs.

WHXX01 KMIA 202309
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (CP932005) ON 20050820 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050820 1800 050821 0600 050821 1800 050822 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.0N 144.3W 10.3N 146.5W 10.6N 148.7W 10.9N 150.9W
BAMM 10.0N 144.3W 10.5N 146.1W 11.0N 147.7W 11.3N 149.4W
LBAR 10.0N 144.3W 10.6N 146.1W 11.3N 148.1W 12.1N 150.5W
SHIP 20KTS 27KTS 34KTS 40KTS
DSHP 20KTS 27KTS 34KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050822 1800 050823 1800 050824 1800 050825 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.0N 153.4W 10.4N 159.6W 9.7N 166.7W 9.5N 173.9W
BAMM 11.5N 151.2W 11.1N 155.9W 11.1N 161.8W 11.3N 167.9W
LBAR 12.8N 153.0W 13.5N 158.9W 13.3N 165.2W 11.5N 165.0W
SHIP 46KTS 51KTS 52KTS 55KTS
DSHP 46KTS 51KTS 52KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 144.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 10.0N LONM12 = 143.2W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 9.8N LONM24 = 142.1W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 65NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
Last edited by WindRunner on Sat Aug 20, 2005 8:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#4 Postby WindRunner » Sat Aug 20, 2005 7:23 pm

Dvorak:
21/0000 UTC 10.0N 144.7W T1.0/1.0 93C -- Central Pacific Ocean

Not bad for a blob like this.
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#5 Postby WindRunner » Sat Aug 20, 2005 8:39 pm

00Z models:

WHXX01 KMIA 210133
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (CP932005) ON 20050821 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050821 0000 050821 1200 050822 0000 050822 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.2N 144.8W 10.6N 146.9W 11.0N 149.1W 11.4N 151.5W
BAMM 10.2N 144.8W 10.8N 146.7W 11.3N 148.5W 11.8N 150.3W
LBAR 10.2N 144.8W 10.6N 146.4W 11.2N 148.3W 11.9N 150.7W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 32KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 32KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050823 0000 050824 0000 050825 0000 050826 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.5N 154.0W 11.4N 160.1W 11.4N 166.9W 11.9N 173.5W
BAMM 12.1N 152.2W 12.1N 157.0W 12.4N 162.6W 12.7N 168.1W
LBAR 12.5N 153.3W 13.0N 159.4W 11.9N 164.6W 11.3N 166.7W
SHIP 43KTS 49KTS 50KTS 54KTS
DSHP 43KTS 49KTS 50KTS 54KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.2N LONCUR = 144.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 10.0N LONM12 = 143.6W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 9.9N LONM24 = 142.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 65NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

We should have Ioke in about 36hrs here, according to models.

If anyone wants to keep updating overnight, feel free to.
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#6 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Aug 20, 2005 9:38 pm

How rare is it to have a tropical cyclone form in the Central PAC?

<RICKY>
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#7 Postby Coredesat » Sat Aug 20, 2005 10:52 pm

Well, the last time a named storm developed in the CPAC was 2002. There were tropical depressions in 2003 and 2004 (one each).
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#8 Postby WindRunner » Sun Aug 21, 2005 6:09 am

And this would be the second system this year.

Dvorak:
21/0600 UTC 10.1N 145.4W T1.0/1.0 93C -- Central Pacific Ocean
Last edited by WindRunner on Sun Aug 21, 2005 11:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#9 Postby WindRunner » Sun Aug 21, 2005 9:08 am

12Z models:

WHXX01 KMIA 211253
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (CP932005) ON 20050821 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050821 1200 050822 0000 050822 1200 050823 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.8N 148.0W 11.2N 150.1W 11.4N 152.4W 11.6N 155.1W
BAMM 10.8N 148.0W 11.0N 150.0W 11.0N 152.0W 11.1N 154.5W
LBAR 10.8N 148.0W 11.2N 150.1W 11.7N 152.7W 12.2N 155.8W
SHIP 20KTS 28KTS 36KTS 42KTS
DSHP 20KTS 28KTS 36KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050823 1200 050824 1200 050825 1200 050826 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.8N 158.1W 12.2N 165.0W 13.1N 171.9W 14.3N 177.4W
BAMM 11.0N 157.4W 10.9N 164.5W 11.6N 172.0W 12.5N 178.8W
LBAR 12.4N 159.0W 12.9N 166.1W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 49KTS 57KTS 61KTS 64KTS
DSHP 49KTS 57KTS 61KTS 64KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 148.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 10.2N LONM12 = 145.4W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 143.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
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#10 Postby WindRunner » Sun Aug 21, 2005 12:33 pm

12Z GFS (T+30):

Image

Nice little circulation for our system.
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#11 Postby WindRunner » Sun Aug 21, 2005 2:27 pm

18Z models:

WHXX01 KMIA 211917
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (CP932005) ON 20050821 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050821 1800 050822 0600 050822 1800 050823 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.1N 149.8W 10.4N 151.9W 10.7N 154.4W 10.9N 157.2W
BAMM 10.1N 149.8W 10.3N 151.8W 10.3N 154.0W 10.2N 156.6W
LBAR 10.1N 149.8W 10.6N 152.2W 11.0N 155.1W 11.5N 158.2W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050823 1800 050824 1800 050825 1800 050826 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.0N 160.3W 11.4N 167.2W 12.2N 173.9W 13.5N 179.2W
BAMM 9.9N 159.8W 9.8N 167.3W 10.0N 175.3W 10.5N 177.1E
LBAR 11.6N 161.5W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 44KTS 56KTS 63KTS 64KTS
DSHP 44KTS 56KTS 63KTS 64KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.1N LONCUR = 149.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 10.1N LONM12 = 146.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 10.1N LONM24 = 144.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

Continue to show TS in 36 hrs, slight pressure drop over past 12 hrs.
Hurricane in 96hrs??
Last edited by WindRunner on Sun Aug 21, 2005 2:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#12 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Aug 21, 2005 2:28 pm

As long as it stays south of our good friends in Hawaii, then its all good.

<RICKY>
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#13 Postby WindRunner » Mon Aug 22, 2005 6:29 am

06Z runs:

WHXX01 KWBC 220710
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL982005) ON 20050822 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050822 0600 050822 1800 050823 0600 050823 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.8N 93.4W 18.5N 94.9W 18.4N 96.3W 18.4N 97.6W
BAMM 18.8N 93.4W 19.0N 94.9W 19.2N 96.3W 19.5N 97.6W
A98E 18.8N 93.4W 19.1N 94.9W 19.2N 96.5W 19.4N 98.2W
LBAR 18.8N 93.4W 18.7N 94.9W 18.8N 96.8W 18.9N 99.0W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 37KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 26KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050824 0600 050825 0600 050826 0600 050827 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.6N 98.9W 19.6N 101.9W 21.1N 105.8W 22.8N 110.1W
BAMM 19.9N 99.1W 21.1N 102.7W 22.6N 107.1W 24.2N 111.9W
A98E 19.8N 100.0W 21.7N 104.1W 24.2N 108.0W 26.3N 111.8W
LBAR 19.1N 101.4W 20.3N 106.6W 22.0N 111.3W 20.5N 113.3W
SHIP 45KTS 58KTS 71KTS 75KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 34KTS 36KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.8N LONCUR = 93.4W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 18.4N LONM12 = 91.9W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 18.0N LONM24 = 90.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

Still some chance a TS, even with DSHP.
Pressure back up though, so doesn't look great.
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