How strong can #12 get? 1935 Labor Day Hurricane Repeat?

[logybogy]

Didn't the 1935 Keys Hurricane go from a Depression to a Cat 5 storm in a couple of days right in this area?!?!?!

I'm curious if anything like this is possible again.

[gkrangers]

I knew this was coming...

I'm going out on a limb, and saying its not going to happen.

[jax]

Didn't the 1935 Keys Hurricane go from a Depression to a Cat 5 storm in a couple of days right in this area?!?!?!

I'm curious if anything like this is possible again.

well... lets not get carried away.... it's forcast to be a
tropical storm... not a CAT 5 HURRICANE...

calm down... no need to panic the board

[kevin]

*clutches hair in frustration*

Why by the Unconquerable Sun must we always have someone at the forefront of every development highlighting the end of the world scenario where a bit of storms blows up into a category 5??

Lets save this hypothetical for when there isn't anything going on. Ask when there isn't a storm close to the mainland what the absolute worst case development speed is. This isn't the time because it might make someone consider that TD 12 is going to suddenly become capable of ripping the flesh off of people. Currently it is estimated at 1007 mb.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This has as good as chance of becoming a cat5 hurricane. As me winning a million dolars before I die. It is not going to happen. Also I don't even think this will become a hurricane because it is very disorganized. For crying out load 97L is more organized low levels then this.

[logybogy]

The NHC Hurricane intensity forecasts have always been garbage. They even say in their latest advisory that intensity forecasts have averaged 20KT error per DAY.

[kevin]

Yep sometimes they forecast a hurricane and it becomes a tropical wave.

[sma10]

Didn't the 1935 Keys Hurricane go from a Depression to a Cat 5 storm in a couple of days right in this area?!?!?!

I'm curious if anything like this is possible again.

I realize you're just posing a hypothetical, but please consider: for the past few days people have been extremely nervous about this system even before it was classified as a depression. This type of post, even though there is no bad intent, is going to cause unnecessary panic and anxiety.

[Recurve]

Short answer: yes, the Great Labor Day Hurricane was a depression Saturday, a Cat 1 Sunday, and a Cat 5 Monday night when it struck near Long Key.

Is it likely? Nope. But not impossible.

[rainstorm]

i feel it will be a rather intense cane myself, though a cat5 is rather doubtful

[Trader Ron]

i feel it will be a rather intense cane myself, though a cat5 is rather doubtful

Intense before a CONUS Landfall?

[jrod]

I think a cat 5 is a realistic possibility when it makes it to the gulf and a major hurricane is probable, as long as the shear stays low there is only scorcing hot water temps for it to feed off of.

It may make it to a hurricane before reacing the EC of Florida, i want to give it about a 50/50, and maybe a 15% chance of a cat 2. We will see what this system does, if it realy winds up overnight then Florida has some trouble, if not we can use the rain and the relief from the hot days.

[Scorpion]

Cat 5 into Florida? No way. Cat 2? Possible. Cat 5 in GOM? Possible.

[rainstorm]

i feel it will be a rather intense cane myself, though a cat5 is rather doubtful

Intense before a CONUS Landfall?

i am very concerned about the pattern now. one hope is it goes over cuba. i dont think it will be more than a cat at best hitting fla or the keys, but once in the gom, i think it will be a major cane

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes there doe's seem to be a more well defined LLC. But I greatly don't think this will make hurricane before making its first landfall.

[ronjon]

Anythings possible with a tropical cyclone tracking slowly thru 90 deg F water. If i lived along the SE coast of FL, I'd definitely have a plan of action in case this thing bombs out. While the NHC has made great strides in predicting landfall, they are way behind the curve on intensity forecasts. Anyone saying what the intensity will be (other than we know now its likely to be a tropical storm at a minimum) is spiting in the wind. While the ULL to the north may keep it in check, the atmosphere is in constant flux and this feature could disappear tomorrow. What, the LLC has 60-72 hrs over warm ocean before landfall? The NHC intensity is probably conservatively low.

[Brent]

The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane was the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever...

I very very very very very seriously doubt this will get anywhere close to that.

The Gulf is a different ballgame though.

[gatorcane]

The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane was the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever...

I very very very very very seriously doubt this will get anywhere close to that.

The Gulf is a different ballgame though.

A hurricane yes but not as strong as the 1935 storm, at least while in the Atlantic, the GOM is another story

[rockyman]

I think the better question is not whether TD12 could be a Cat 5, but could it become a Cat 2 or 3? If so, would the people right on the coast have time to evacuate? When you start talking about the Labor Day Hurricane, you are sure to ruffle a few feathers...but a Cat 2 or 3 is a lot more possible and could be particularly devastating for an unprepared populace.

[shaggy]

you have got to be kidding me that this much talk of a cat 5 is going on.There is no way to even come close to saying how strong this will be.It might not make cat 2.This is a ridiculous thread and makes no sense to try and go with a bold and HIGHLY irresponsible post like this.

Think its time to take a break from the boards when theres this much Hype going on sounds like a discussion from JB