KATRINA FORECAST #1

[george_r_1961]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Sattelite imagery and radar this morning indicate that Katrina continues to become better organized and hurricane warnings have been issued for portions of southern Florida. The west northwest movement of Katrina should become more westerly due to a strong ridge anchored to the north of the storm over the mid atlantic states. The ridge will shift eastward and the western edge weaken, allowing for a more northwesterly track in the next 24-48 hours. Heres where it gets tricky.

If the ridge does not move out as quickly as expected Katrina will emerge into the northeast GOM and most likely head for the Florida Panhandle after crossing the Keys. This part of the GOM typically does not favor intensifying storms but of course there are exceptions. This scenario would likely result in a Category One hurricane impacting the panhandle. Keep in mind while track forecasts are difficult intensity forecasts are even more problematic.

Another scenario has the ridge moving out or weakening quicker. This would bring Katrina inland over south Florida, then recurving NE along or near the coast. A track slightly inland would mean primarily a heavy rain threat with the worst weather, including isolated tornadoes..occuring along the coast to the east of the center. A track over water would result in the storm maintaining intensity while posing a threat to coastal Georgia and the Carolinas. This appears to be the least likely scenario at this time but it cannot be ruled out as some models are hinting at it. Therefore interests from the Outer Banks of NC southward need to monitor the progress of Katrina.

George Rinaldi

[rainstorm]

looks now like the more north it gets , the weaker it will be