Are the mets sure about the Ridge weakness?

[HouTXmetro]

Just wondering.... all the models keep indicating Katrina will be picked up and head north. Is that a guarantee? What are the possibilities that weakness isn't strong enough and Katrina is pulled NW for a while then resumes a West or SW heading into LA,TX, or MX?

[Roxy]

Or, what if she's goes too far south too early and misses it all together? Then what?

(We could probably find a million questions to ask, and ultimately the answer is..wait and see, I spose.)

[deltadog03]

ridge is still really strong...here is the 500mb chart at 12z this morning

http://weather.cod.edu/wx/public/raob/500.gif

[HouTXmetro]

ridge is still really strong...here is the 500mb chart at 12z this morning

http://weather.cod.edu/wx/public/raob/500.gif

Is the Ridge moving west already?

[deltadog03]

i don't think so....the heights are still really high in the southeast....not much change anywhere since 00z data

[LAwxrgal]

ridge is still really strong...here is the 500mb chart at 12z this morning

http://weather.cod.edu/wx/public/raob/500.gif

Is the Ridge moving west already?

That's what I heard this morning, that the ridge was moving west already. What implications would that pose for the track?

[HouTXmetro]

i don't think so....the heights are still really high in the southeast....not much change anywhere since 00z data

Ok, what about this short wave/trough that is suppose to be digging. How is it looking this AM?

[BayouVenteux]

Just wondering.... all the models keep indicating Katrina will be picked up and head north. Is that a guarantee? What are the possibilities that weakness isn't strong enough and Katrina is pulled NW for a while then resumes a West or SW heading into LA,TX, or MX?

The details (a general 150 mile spread that wavers back and forth as the model runs are generated and consensus tracks are determined...one that will obviously shrink with time) may be less than crystalline at this point, but the overall weather synoptic doesn't preclude any shocking departures from the NHC's current track forecast.


If you live in Texas and Louisiana, look for more hot late August weather, compounded by subsidence and dry air from the NE as Katrina moves poleward to our east.

Order of the day: get ready to crank the AC and the sprinklers.

[Steve]

I agree BV and don't think this will be an LA/MS or probably even much of an AL event (still liking my Santa Rosa/Okaloosa/Walton Co. ideas from Wed.)

But Katrina once again shows what the real danger for New Orleans is. We're well inside the 72 hour threshhold required to evacuate the city. Including me, no one is really expecting anything here (except for the obligatory "don't let your guards down" or "stay tuned this weekend"). This is the type of system that doesn't allow enough warning for FEMA and Homeland Security to make the preparations required. (Opal was another one which had it come 150 miles further west could have been nasty.)

I want to emphasize that nothing's probably going to change and that the NHC is probably right on (maybe 50 miles too far east). But consider for a second if we got a strong intensification and a farther west track.

Checkmate.

Steve

[jasons2k]

Just wondering.... all the models keep indicating Katrina will be picked up and head north. Is that a guarantee? What are the possibilities that weakness isn't strong enough and Katrina is pulled NW for a while then resumes a West or SW heading into LA,TX, or MX?

The details (a general 150 mile spread that wavers back and forth as the model runs are generated and consensus tracks are determined...one that will obviously shrink with time) may be less than crystalline at this point, but the overall weather synoptic doesn't preclude any shocking departures from the NHC's current track forecast.


If you live in Texas and Louisiana, look for more hot late August weather, compounded by subsidence and dry air from the NE as Katrina moves poleward to our east.

Order of the day: get ready to crank the AC and the sprinklers.

I hope you're right...but getting a tad concerned they may be holding onto the curvature scenario too long

[deltadog03]

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_us.html

[Nimbus]

Many of the evacuation routes out of New Orleans are west into Texas.

[dwg71]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

You can clearly see the trough digging in and the high moving off to the west. The trough is half way through Arkansas and his digging south through MS and AL.

Trust the NHC...

[loon]

I see pressure to her north, the pressure to her NW (LA) and the pressure out in the GOMEX. Now, MY impression, with no training, is the LA ridge at this time is holding strong, the GOMEX spin is moving West, and the ridge to her north is pushing down on here. To me, she should start moving west soon, probably picking up a good pace. Then its up to the LA ridge, which will be the deciding factor. I think for now NHC has this one under control.

Cheers,
loon

[deltadog03]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

You can clearly see the trough digging in and the high moving off to the west. The trough is half way through Arkansas and his digging south through MS and AL.

Trust the NHC...

the TROF is NOT into arkansas!!! the short wave is way back in wyoming....not arkansas...the ridge is still firmly in place....notice the western atlantic...clouds are moving N to S...

[LAwxrgal]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

You can clearly see the trough digging in and the high moving off to the west. The trough is half way through Arkansas and his digging south through MS and AL.

Trust the NHC...

the TROF is NOT into arkansas!!! the short wave is way back in wyoming....not arkansas...the ridge is still firmly in place....notice the western atlantic...clouds are moving N to S...

I think her southward progress is over. She will resume a west or even north of west heading soon.

[dwg71]

Your are correct, the eastern edge of the high pressure is moving west evident by the N to S cloud flow through AK, MS, and AL and that is what is being shown on water vapor. Trough is clearly visable in WY, SD, and NB.

[KatDaddy]

The turn will occur today which is great news for Texas and SW LA. None of the model ever showed a land further W than Central LA....at least the model I viewed.

[deltadog03]

i think TX is fine....LA eastward needs to really watch

[loon]

She's wobbling like an Irishman at a wake right now. I've picked up a return to WSW movement on the last few frames of radar, probably won't continue, but who knows. NHC said "wobble erractically" west...I'd say that is spot on currently.

loon